Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Missouri St @ Arkansas St MOST @ ARST

MISSOURI STATE

MISSOURI STMOST

7-5  |  Road

28
FINAL
Thu, Dec 18 • 9:00 PM ET
Ford Center At The Star
View Odds Details →

ARKANSAS STATE

ARKANSAS STARST

6-6  |  Home

34
Key Game
Stewart McDonald
KEY GAME

Stewart McDonald

#25 | Punter
@
Brandon Greil
KEY GAME

Brandon Greil

#15 | Safety
Player
Stewart McDonald None-None
Brandon Greil None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
MISSOURI ST
100%
📊
ARKANSAS ST
0%
MISSOURI ST --
ARKANSAS ST --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
23.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
ARKANSAS STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Arkansas State)
Missouri StMOST (-3.5) 0 Arkansas StARST (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Missouri St Cover

47.2%

Arkansas St Cover

52.8%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around ARST -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ARST)

MOST By 1-6 points

16.1%

MOST By 7-13 points

14.6%

ARST By 1-6 points

16.7%

ARST By 7-13 points

16.1%

AI Model Projected Score
11
MISSOURI STATE
12
ARKANSAS STATE
Simulated Score
17
MISSOURI STATE
45
ARKANSAS STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Arkansas St Win
0% Win Prob
A
Sim Arkansas St Win
50% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Arkansas St (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -1.0
A
Sim Arkansas St (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -28.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus 👑 Top Selection
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 23.0
A
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 62.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 18, 2025 MOST @ ARST 28 - 34
Sep 19, 2015 MOST @ ARST 7 - 70
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +144.7% more
Arkansas State: 2.8 vs Missouri State: 1.1
Rushing Yards (L5) +12.2% more
Missouri State: 132.1 vs Arkansas State: 116.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MOST Score 11.0 28
ARST Score 12.0 34
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 23.4 / 22.4 16.0 / 23.0
Rushing Yards 116.0 / 132.1 71.0 / 47.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.18 / 0.53
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.35 / 0.65
Total Yards 413.0 / 429.6 359.0 / 396.0
Turnovers 2.8 / 1.1 0.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
59%TICKETS41%
58%MONEY42%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
50%TICKETS50%
68%MONEY32%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
58%TICKETS42%
68%MONEY32%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MOST
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: -8.0 ATS +/-: +6.0
ARST Advantage
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-: -0.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MOST Advantage
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -8.0 ATS +/-: +6.0
ARST
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-: -0.2
⚖️ Over/Under
MOST
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +1.0
ARST
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -6.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ARST
MOST
ARST
MOST
ML
75% 3-1
75% 3-1
100% 5-0
100% 4-0
ATS
100% 4-0
50% 2-2
60% 3-2
50% 2-2
TTL
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
40% 2-3
50% 2-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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