Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Tigers @ Knights TOW @ UCF

TOWSON

TIGERSTOW

6-4  |  Road

61
FINAL
Sun, Dec 7 • 4:00 PM ET
Addition Financial Arena
View Odds Details →

UCF

KNIGHTSUCF

8-1  |  Home

86
AI Model Win Probability
TIGERS
0%
📊
KNIGHTS
100%
TIGERS --
KNIGHTS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
159.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
UCF
Book Spread
--
Book Line
TigersTOW (-3.5) 0 KnightsUCF (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Tigers Cover

46.0%

Knights Cover

54.0%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around UCF +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UCF)

TOW By 1-7 points

26.2%

TOW By 8-14 points

16.9%

UCF By 1-7 points

24.3%

UCF By 8-14 points

13.7%

AI Model Projected Score
80
TOWSON
79
UCF
Simulated Score
68
TOWSON
75
UCF
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Tigers Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Knights Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Knights (+9.5) Win
Proj Spread: +1.0
D
Sim Knights (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o145.5 Win
Proj Total: 159.0
D
Sim u145.5 Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 7, 2025 TOW @ UCF 61 - 86
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +18.2% more
Towson: 6.1 vs UCF: 5.0
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +4.7%
Towson: 36.1% vs UCF: 31.4%
Assists (L5) +59.7% more
UCF: 18.2 vs Towson: 11.4
Rebounding (L5) +20.6% more
UCF: 45.6 vs Towson: 37.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TOW Score 80.0 61
UCF Score 79.0 86
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 31.4 / 36.1 29.0 / 24.0
Assists 18.2 / 11.4 13.0 / 7.0
Blocks 3.1 / 3.0 3.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 47.4 / 46.7 55.0 / 45.0
Free Throw % 75.5 / 66.2 90.0 / 46.0
Rebounding 45.6 / 37.8 33.0 / 27.0
Steals 5.0 / 6.1 4.0 / 3.0
Turnovers 10.4 / 10.2 9.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
3%TICKETS97%
8%MONEY92%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
35%TICKETS65%
57%MONEY43%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
64%TICKETS36%
69%MONEY31%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TOW
19-15-0 (55.9%)
Margin: 3.1 ATS +/-: -0.8
UCF Advantage
21-12-0 (63.6%)
Margin: 2.3 ATS +/-: +1.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TOW
14-17-1 (45.2%)
Margin: 3.1 ATS +/-: -0.8
UCF Advantage
16-17-0 (48.5%)
Margin: 2.3 ATS +/-: +1.2
⚖️ Over/Under
TOW
11-21-0
O: 34.4% / U: 65.6% Total +/-: -5.5
UCF
13-20-0
O: 39.4% / U: 60.6% Total +/-: +1.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UCF
TOW
UCF
TOW
ML
55% 18-15
66% 21-11
65% 20-11
62% 20-12
ATS
55% 18-15
66% 21-11
65% 20-11
62% 20-12
TTL
61% 20-13
53% 17-15
100% 31-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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