BUFFALO
SABRESBUF
11-11-4 | Road
2
PHILADELPHIA
FLYERSPHI
14-8-3 | Home
5
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Colten Ellis
#92 | Goaltender@
GOALTENDER
Egor Zamula
#5 | D| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colten Ellis | None-None | 5.00 | 0.857 | -- |
| Egor Zamula | None-None | -- | -- | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
5.00
GAA
--
0.857
Save %
--
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
SABRES
0%
FLYERS
100%
SABRES
--
FLYERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
PHILADELPHIA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-6-4-20+2+4+6
Distribution centered around PHI +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PHI)
BUF By 1 goal
19.7%
BUF By 2-3 goals
29.6%
PHI By 1 goal
12.1%
PHI By 2-3 goals
9.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Buffalo
3
BUFFALO
Philadelphia
2
PHILADELPHIA
Simulated Score
Buffalo
3
BUFFALO
Philadelphia
4
PHILADELPHIA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Sabres
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Flyers
Win
50% Win Prob
B
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Flyers (+1.5)
Win
Proj Goals: +1.0
D
Sim
Flyers (+0)
Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u6.0
Loss
Proj Total: 5.0
D
Sim
u6.0
Win
Proj Total: 7.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 14, 2026
PHI @ BUF
2 - 5
Dec 18, 2025
PHI @ BUF
3 - 5
Dec 3, 2025
BUF @ PHI
2 - 5
Apr 17, 2025
PHI @ BUF
4 - 5
Mar 29, 2025
BUF @ PHI
4 - 7
Key Model Drivers
Takeaways (L5)
+38.0% more
Buffalo: 6.1
vs
Philadelphia: 3.8
Shots on Goal (L5)
+17.9% more
Buffalo: 32.1
vs
Philadelphia: 26.3
Power Play % (L5)
+3.5%
Buffalo: 16.2%
vs
Philadelphia: 12.7%
Blocked Shots (L5)
+46.7% more
Philadelphia: 16.0
vs
Buffalo: 10.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
BUF Score
3.0
2
PHI Score
2.0
5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
16.0 / 10.9
15.0 / 20.0
Faceoff %
47.1 / 47.3
52.6 / 47.4
Hits
22.7 / 18.2
18.0 / 16.0
Power Play %
12.7 / 16.2
40.0 / 16.7
Shots on Goal
26.3 / 32.1
35.0 / 29.0
Takeaways
3.8 / 6.1
7.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PHI
BUF
PHI
BUF
ML
75%
3-1
67%
2-1
50%
2-2
67%
2-1
ATS
25%
1-3
33%
1-2
25%
1-3
100%
3-0
TTL
25%
1-3
33%
1-2
50%
2-2
33%
1-2
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