USC
TROJANSUSC
7-0 | Road
82
OREGON
DUCKSORE
4-3 | Home
77
AI Model Win Probability
TROJANS
100%
DUCKS
0%
TROJANS
--
DUCKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
137.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
OREGON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Oregon)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around ORE -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ORE)
USC By 1-7 points
21.6%
USC By 8-14 points
10.7%
ORE By 1-7 points
27.2%
ORE By 8-14 points
20.1%
AI Model Projected Score
USC
67
USC
Oregon
70
OREGON
Simulated Score
USC
71
USC
Oregon
75
OREGON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Ducks
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Ducks
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Ducks (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Sim
Ducks (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 137.0
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 146.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 21, 2026
ORE @ USC
71 - 70
Dec 2, 2025
USC @ ORE
82 - 77
Mar 1, 2025
USC @ ORE
61 - 82
Dec 4, 2024
ORE @ USC
68 - 60
Feb 1, 2024
ORE @ USC
78 - 69
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5)
+11.0% more
Oregon: 38.9
vs
USC: 35.1
Free Throw % (L5)
+2.7%
Oregon: 71.8%
vs
USC: 69.0%
Steals (L5)
+23.8% more
USC: 5.6
vs
Oregon: 4.3
Blocks (L5)
+20.9% more
USC: 5.7
vs
Oregon: 4.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
USC Score
67.0
82
ORE Score
70.0
77
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
26.1 / 41.2
43.0 / 38.0
Assists
14.4 / 15.2
14.0 / 10.0
Blocks
4.5 / 5.7
3.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
41.5 / 51.7
47.0 / 51.0
Free Throw %
71.8 / 69.0
65.0 / 72.0
Rebounding
38.9 / 35.1
27.0 / 35.0
Steals
4.3 / 5.6
8.0 / 9.0
Turnovers
12.0 / 12.7
14.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
USC
Advantage
18-14-0
(56.3%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-: -3.5
ORE
12-20-0
(37.5%)
Margin: -3.1
ATS +/-: -2.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
USC
Advantage
13-18-0
(41.9%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-: -3.5
ORE
12-20-0
(37.5%)
Margin: -3.1
ATS +/-: -2.5
⚖️ Over/Under
USC
17-14-0
O: 54.8% / U: 45.2%
Total +/-: +2.5
ORE
14-18-0
O: 43.8% / U: 56.3%
Total +/-: -1.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ORE
USC
ORE
USC
ML
56%
18-14
52%
16-15
62%
18-11
58%
18-13
ATS
56%
18-14
68%
21-10
62%
18-11
58%
18-13
TTL
59%
19-13
68%
21-10
100%
29-0
100%
31-0
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