Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Aztecs @ Ducks SDSU @ ORE

SAN DIEGO STATE

AZTECSSDSU

2-1  |  Road

97
FINAL
Tue, Nov 25 • 11:00 PM ET
Michelob ULTRA Arena
View Odds Details →

OREGON

DUCKSORE

4-0  |  Home

80
AI Model Win Probability
AZTECS
0%
📊
DUCKS
100%
AZTECS --
DUCKS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
129.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-21.0
SAN DIEGO STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +21.0 points (San Diego State)
AztecsSDSU (-3.5) 0 DucksORE (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Aztecs Cover

98.2%

Ducks Cover

1.8%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around SDSU -21.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SDSU)

SDSU By 1-7 points

6.8%

SDSU By 8-14 points

16.9%

ORE By 1-7 points

1.4%

ORE By 8-14 points

0.2%

AI Model Projected Score
75
SAN DIEGO STATE
54
OREGON
Simulated Score
68
SAN DIEGO STATE
72
OREGON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Aztecs Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Ducks Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Aztecs (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -21.0
D
Sim Ducks (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 129.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 25, 2025 SDSU @ ORE 97 - 80
Nov 27, 2024 SDSU @ ORE 68 - 78
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +34.0% more
San Diego State: 8.1 vs Oregon: 5.3
Blocks (L5) +25.3% more
San Diego State: 4.3 vs Oregon: 3.2
Turnovers (L5) +10.5% more
San Diego State: 15.5 vs Oregon: 13.8
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +3.0%
San Diego State: 35.0% vs Oregon: 32.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SDSU Score 75.0 97
ORE Score 54.0 80
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 32.0 / 35.0 43.0 / 48.0
Assists 13.4 / 13.4 17.0 / 22.0
Blocks 3.2 / 4.3 2.0 / 6.0
Field Goal % 41.8 / 41.0 40.0 / 67.0
Free Throw % 72.5 / 73.2 82.0 / 89.0
Rebounding 41.5 / 35.2 26.0 / 34.0
Steals 5.3 / 8.1 4.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 13.8 / 15.5 13.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
12%TICKETS88%
15%MONEY85%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
19%TICKETS81%
24%MONEY76%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
63%TICKETS37%
52%MONEY48%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SDSU Advantage
22-11-0 (66.7%)
Margin: 7.2 ATS +/-: -0.7
ORE
12-20-0 (37.5%)
Margin: -3.1 ATS +/-: -2.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SDSU Advantage
15-16-0 (48.4%)
Margin: 7.2 ATS +/-: -0.7
ORE
12-20-0 (37.5%)
Margin: -3.1 ATS +/-: -2.5
⚖️ Over/Under
SDSU
15-16-0
O: 48.4% / U: 51.6% Total +/-: +5.5
ORE
14-18-0
O: 43.8% / U: 56.3% Total +/-: -1.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ORE
SDSU
ORE
SDSU
ML
56% 18-14
62% 20-12
62% 18-11
72% 23-9
ATS
56% 18-14
69% 22-10
62% 18-11
72% 23-9
TTL
59% 19-13
75% 24-8
100% 29-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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