OREGON STATE
BEAVERSORST
3-1 | Road
75
OREGON
DUCKSORE
4-0 | Home
87
AI Model Win Probability
BEAVERS
100%
DUCKS
0%
BEAVERS
--
DUCKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
156.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
OREGON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Oregon)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around ORE -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ORE)
ORST By 1-7 points
23.0%
ORST By 8-14 points
12.2%
ORE By 1-7 points
26.8%
ORE By 8-14 points
18.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Oregon State
77
OREGON STATE
Oregon
79
OREGON
Simulated Score
Oregon State
68
OREGON STATE
Oregon
75
OREGON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Ducks
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Ducks
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Ducks (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -2.0
D
Sim
Ducks (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 156.0
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Nov 17, 2025
ORST @ ORE
75 - 87
Nov 21, 2024
ORE @ ORST
78 - 75
Feb 28, 2024
ORST @ ORE
71 - 78
Feb 17, 2024
ORE @ ORST
60 - 58
Feb 25, 2023
ORE @ ORST
69 - 67
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+100.8% more
Oregon: 4.9
vs
Oregon State: 2.5
Steals (L5)
+32.3% more
Oregon: 7.3
vs
Oregon State: 5.5
Rebounding (L5)
+26.4% more
Oregon: 39.9
vs
Oregon State: 31.6
Free Throw % (L5)
+8.5%
Oregon State: 78.6%
vs
Oregon: 70.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ORST Score
77.0
75
ORE Score
79.0
87
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
30.7 / 32.5
42.0 / 32.0
Assists
12.7 / 12.2
14.0 / 13.0
Blocks
4.9 / 2.5
3.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
42.0 / 43.1
47.0 / 43.0
Free Throw %
70.1 / 78.6
69.0 / 84.0
Rebounding
39.9 / 31.6
38.0 / 27.0
Steals
7.3 / 5.5
5.0 / 4.0
Turnovers
12.6 / 12.5
10.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ORST
Advantage
17-16-0
(51.5%)
Margin: -3.0
ATS +/-: -0.1
ORE
12-20-0
(37.5%)
Margin: -3.1
ATS +/-: -2.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ORST
Advantage
16-17-0
(48.5%)
Margin: -3.0
ATS +/-: -0.1
ORE
12-20-0
(37.5%)
Margin: -3.1
ATS +/-: -2.5
⚖️ Over/Under
ORST
19-14-0
O: 57.6% / U: 42.4%
Total +/-: +1.1
ORE
14-18-0
O: 43.8% / U: 56.3%
Total +/-: -1.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ORE
ORST
ORE
ORST
ML
56%
18-14
45%
15-18
62%
18-11
59%
19-13
ATS
56%
18-14
48%
16-17
62%
18-11
59%
19-13
TTL
59%
19-13
55%
18-15
100%
29-0
100%
32-0
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