Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Maryland @ Illinois MD @ ILL

MARYLAND

MARYLANDMD

4-5  |  Road

6
FINAL
Sat, Nov 15 • 3:30 PM ET
Memorial Stadium (Champaign, IL)
View Odds Details →

ILLINOIS

ILLINOISILL

6-3  |  Home

24
Key Game
Bryce McFerson
KEY GAME

Bryce McFerson

#34 | Punter
@
Mac Resetich
KEY GAME

Mac Resetich

#0 | Defensive Back
Player
Bryce McFerson None-None
Mac Resetich None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
MARYLAND
100%
📊
ILLINOIS
0%
MARYLAND --
ILLINOIS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
48.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-28.0
ILLINOIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +28.0 points (Illinois)
MarylandMD (-3.5) 0 IllinoisILL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Maryland Cover

2.3%

Illinois Cover

97.7%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around ILL -28.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ILL)

MD By 1-6 points

1.4%

MD By 7-13 points

0.5%

ILL By 1-6 points

3.8%

ILL By 7-13 points

8.8%

AI Model Projected Score
10
MARYLAND
38
ILLINOIS
Simulated Score
20
MARYLAND
27
ILLINOIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Illinois Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Illinois Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Illinois (-16.5) Win
Proj Spread: -28.0
C
Sim Illinois (-16.5) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u51.5 Win
Proj Total: 48.0
C
Sim u51.5 Win
Proj Total: 47.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 15, 2025 MD @ ILL 6 - 24
Oct 14, 2023 ILL @ MD 27 - 24
Sep 17, 2021 MD @ ILL 20 - 17
Oct 27, 2018 ILL @ MD 33 - 63
Key Model Drivers
First Downs (L5) +53.3% more
Illinois: 22.9 vs Maryland: 14.9
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +17.0% more
Illinois: 0.5 vs Maryland: 0.3
Total Yards (L5) +11.9% more
Illinois: 391.2 vs Maryland: 349.5
Time of Possession (L5) +9.0% more
Illinois: 0.5 vs Maryland: 0.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MD Score 10.0 6
ILL Score 38.0 24
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 22.9 / 14.9 24.0 / 18.0
Rushing Yards 145.0 / 156.4 225.0 / 55.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.3 0.54 / 0.25
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.4 0.6 / 0.4
Total Yards 391.2 / 349.5 397.0 / 293.0
Turnovers 1.4 / 1.9 1.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
4%TICKETS96%
24%MONEY76%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
47%TICKETS53%
13%MONEY87%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
68%TICKETS32%
64%MONEY36%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MD
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 0.2 ATS +/-: -7.1
ILL
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 4.6 ATS +/-: -5.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MD
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 0.2 ATS +/-: -7.1
ILL
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 4.6 ATS +/-: -5.6
⚖️ Over/Under
MD
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +6.5
ILL
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +1.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ILL
MD
ILL
MD
ML
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
40% 2-3
ATS
40% 2-3
0% 0-5
80% 4-1
0% 0-5
TTL
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
40% 2-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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