Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / FIU @ Missouri St FIU @ MOST

FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL

FIUFIU

3-4  |  Road

21
FINAL
Wed, Oct 29 • 8:00 PM ET
Robert W. Plaster Stadium
View Odds Details →

MISSOURI STATE

MISSOURI STMOST

4-3  |  Home

28
Key Game
Josiah Taylor
KEY GAME

Josiah Taylor

#9 | Linebacker
@
Stewart McDonald
KEY GAME

Stewart McDonald

#25 | Punter
Player
Josiah Taylor None-None
Stewart McDonald None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
FIU
100%
📊
MISSOURI ST
0%
FIU --
MISSOURI ST --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
41.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-41.0
MISSOURI STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +41.0 points (Missouri State)
FIUFIU (-3.5) 0 Missouri StMOST (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

FIU Cover

0.2%

Missouri St Cover

99.8%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around MOST -41.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MOST)

FIU By 1-6 points

0.1%

FIU By 7-13 points

0.0%

MOST By 1-6 points

0.5%

MOST By 7-13 points

1.8%

AI Model Projected Score
0
FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL
41
MISSOURI STATE
Simulated Score
20
FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL
27
MISSOURI STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Missouri St Win
0% Win Prob
B
Sim Missouri St Win
50% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Missouri St (-3) Win
Proj Spread: -41.0
B
Sim Missouri St (-3) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus 👑 Top Selection
AI u49.5 Win
Proj Total: 41.0
B
Sim u49.5 Win
Proj Total: 47.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 29, 2025 FIU @ MOST 21 - 28
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +29.7% more
Missouri State: 1.5 vs Florida International: 1.2
Rushing Yards (L5) +42.5% more
Florida International: 200.5 vs Missouri State: 115.4
Total Yards (L5) +11.3% more
Florida International: 430.9 vs Missouri State: 382.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
FIU Score 0.0 21
MOST Score 41.0 28
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 20.1 / 20.1 18.0 / 23.0
Rushing Yards 115.4 / 200.5 206.0 / 115.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.4 0.5 / 0.38
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.6 0.47 / 0.53
Total Yards 382.1 / 430.9 369.0 / 346.0
Turnovers 1.5 / 1.2 1.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
18%TICKETS82%
27%MONEY73%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
25%TICKETS75%
18%MONEY82%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
71%TICKETS29%
80%MONEY20%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
FIU Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 6.6 ATS +/-: -0.1
MOST
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -10.6 ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
FIU Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 6.6 ATS +/-: -0.1
MOST
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -10.6 ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
FIU
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: -22.1
MOST
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -1.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MOST
FIU
MOST
FIU
ML
80% 4-1
100% 5-0
80% 4-1
100% 5-0
ATS
60% 3-2
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
TTL
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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