Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Alabama @ South Carolina ALA @ SC

ALABAMA

ALABAMAALA

6-1  |  Road

29
FINAL
Sat, Oct 25 • 3:30 PM ET
Williams-Brice Stadium
View Odds Details →

SOUTH CAROLINA

SOUTH CAROLINASC

3-4  |  Home

22
Key Game
Kaleb Edwards
KEY GAME

Kaleb Edwards

#81 | Tight End
@
Mason Love
KEY GAME

Mason Love

#24 | Place kicker
Player
Kaleb Edwards None-None
Mason Love None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
ALABAMA
0%
📊
SOUTH CAROLINA
100%
ALABAMA --
SOUTH CAROLINA --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
48.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-20.0
ALABAMA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +20.0 points (Alabama)
AlabamaALA (-3.5) 0 South CarolinaSC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Alabama Cover

92.3%

South Carolina Cover

7.7%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around ALA -20.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ALA)

ALA By 1-6 points

8.6%

ALA By 7-13 points

15.4%

SC By 1-6 points

4.2%

SC By 7-13 points

2.1%

AI Model Projected Score
34
ALABAMA
14
SOUTH CAROLINA
Simulated Score
17
ALABAMA
38
SOUTH CAROLINA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Alabama Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim South Carolina Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Alabama (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -20.0
C
Sim South Carolina (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -21.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 48.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 55.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 26, 2026 SC @ ALA 18 - 49
Oct 25, 2025 ALA @ SC 29 - 22
Oct 12, 2024 SC @ ALA 25 - 27
Sep 14, 2019 ALA @ SC 47 - 23
Key Model Drivers
Total Yards (L5) +25.7% more
Alabama: 394.0 vs South Carolina: 292.8
First Downs (L5) +24.1% more
Alabama: 23.1 vs South Carolina: 17.6
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +13.0% more
Alabama: 0.5 vs South Carolina: 0.3
Rushing Yards (L5) +10.8% more
Alabama: 125.7 vs South Carolina: 112.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ALA Score 34.0 29
SC Score 14.0 22
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 17.6 / 23.1 18.0 / 17.0
Rushing Yards 112.2 / 125.7 111.0 / 72.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.5 0.35 / 0.5
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.6 0.54 / 0.46
Total Yards 292.8 / 394.0 333.0 / 325.0
Turnovers 1.5 / 0.9 2.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
96%TICKETS4%
89%MONEY11%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
79%TICKETS21%
71%MONEY29%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
87%TICKETS13%
77%MONEY23%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ALA Advantage
5-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 28.8 ATS +/-: +14.1
SC
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 10.8 ATS +/-: -3.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ALA Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 28.8 ATS +/-: +14.1
SC
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: 10.8 ATS +/-: -3.9
⚖️ Over/Under
ALA
5-0-0
O: 100.0% / U: 0.0% Total +/-: +16.9
SC
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +9.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SC
ALA
SC
ALA
ML
60% 3-2
100% 5-0
80% 4-1
20% 1-4
ATS
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
20% 1-4
20% 1-4
TTL
20% 1-4
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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