Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Boston College @ Louisville BC @ LOU

BOSTON COLLEGE

BOSTON COLLEGEBC

1-6  |  Road

24
FINAL
Sat, Oct 25 • 7:30 PM ET
L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium
View Odds Details →

LOUISVILLE

LOUISVILLELOU

5-1  |  Home

38
Key Game
Luca Lombardo
KEY GAME

Luca Lombardo

#99 | Place kicker
@
Jabari Mack
KEY GAME

Jabari Mack

#1 | Defensive Back
Player
Luca Lombardo None-None
Jabari Mack None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
BOSTON COLLEGE
100%
📊
LOUISVILLE
0%
BOSTON COLLEGE --
LOUISVILLE --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
62.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-42.0
LOUISVILLE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +42.0 points (Louisville)
Boston CollegeBC (-3.5) 0 LouisvilleLOU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Boston College Cover

0.1%

Louisville Cover

99.9%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around LOU -42.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LOU)

BC By 1-6 points

0.1%

BC By 7-13 points

0.0%

LOU By 1-6 points

0.4%

LOU By 7-13 points

1.5%

AI Model Projected Score
10
BOSTON COLLEGE
52
LOUISVILLE
Simulated Score
28
BOSTON COLLEGE
24
LOUISVILLE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Louisville Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Boston College Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Louisville (-25.5) Win
Proj Spread: -42.0
C
Sim Boston College (+25.5) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o54.5 Win
Proj Total: 62.0
C
Sim u54.5 Loss
Proj Total: 52.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 25, 2025 BC @ LOU 24 - 38
Oct 25, 2024 LOU @ BC 31 - 27
Sep 23, 2023 BC @ LOU 28 - 56
Oct 1, 2022 LOU @ BC 33 - 34
Oct 23, 2021 BC @ LOU 14 - 28
Key Model Drivers
Total Yards (L5) +16.3% more
Louisville: 388.0 vs Boston College: 333.6
First Downs (L5) +13.3% more
Louisville: 21.8 vs Boston College: 19.2
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +9.0% more
Louisville: 0.4 vs Boston College: 0.3
Time of Possession (L5) +8.0% more
Louisville: 0.5 vs Boston College: 0.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BC Score 10.0 24
LOU Score 52.0 38
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 21.8 / 19.2 14.0 / 20.0
Rushing Yards 109.5 / 121.5 317.0 / 116.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.3 0.27 / 0.38
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.4 / 0.6
Total Yards 388.0 / 333.6 504.0 / 360.0
Turnovers 1.3 / 1.4 3.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
4%TICKETS96%
15%MONEY85%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
31%TICKETS69%
30%MONEY70%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
70%TICKETS30%
84%MONEY16%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BC
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -4.4 ATS +/-: -3.8
LOU
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 9.4 ATS +/-: -1.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BC
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: -4.4 ATS +/-: -3.8
LOU
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 9.4 ATS +/-: -1.1
⚖️ Over/Under
BC
0-5-0
O: 0.0% / U: 100.0% Total +/-: -9.7
LOU
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +11.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LOU
BC
LOU
BC
ML
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
ATS
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
TTL
40% 2-3
20% 1-4
60% 3-2
20% 1-4
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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