Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Ohio State @ Illinois OSU @ ILL

OHIO STATE

OHIO STATEOSU

5-0  |  Road

34
FINAL
Sat, Oct 11 • 12:00 PM ET
Memorial Stadium (Champaign, IL)
View Odds Details →

ILLINOIS

ILLINOISILL

5-1  |  Home

16
Key Game
Joe McGuire
KEY GAME

Joe McGuire

#42 | Punter
@
Joe Barna
KEY GAME

Joe Barna

#43 | Defensive Lineman
Player
Joe McGuire None-None
Joe Barna None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
OHIO STATE
100%
📊
ILLINOIS
0%
OHIO STATE --
ILLINOIS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
85.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
ILLINOIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (Illinois)
Ohio StateOSU (-3.5) 0 IllinoisILL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Ohio State Cover

30.9%

Illinois Cover

69.1%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around ILL -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ILL)

OSU By 1-6 points

12.9%

OSU By 7-13 points

9.6%

ILL By 1-6 points

16.5%

ILL By 7-13 points

19.3%

AI Model Projected Score
39
OHIO STATE
46
ILLINOIS
Simulated Score
17
OHIO STATE
42
ILLINOIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Illinois Loss
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Illinois Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Illinois (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Sim Illinois (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -25.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 85.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 59.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 26, 2026 ILL @ OSU 19 - 42
Oct 11, 2025 OSU @ ILL 34 - 16
Nov 18, 2017 ILL @ OSU 14 - 52
Nov 14, 2015 OSU @ ILL 28 - 3
Nov 1, 2014 ILL @ OSU 14 - 55
Key Model Drivers
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +25.0% more
Ohio State: 0.6 vs Illinois: 0.4
Rushing Yards (L5) +22.9% more
Ohio State: 163.5 vs Illinois: 126.0
First Downs (L5) +10.0% more
Ohio State: 22.8 vs Illinois: 20.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
OSU Score 39.0 34
ILL Score 46.0 16
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 20.5 / 22.8 22.0 / 17.0
Rushing Yards 126.0 / 163.5 47.0 / 106.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.6 0.29 / 0.53
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.45 / 0.55
Total Yards 419.3 / 454.8 295.0 / 272.0
Turnovers 0.7 / 0.7 3.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
94%TICKETS6%
85%MONEY15%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
59%TICKETS41%
69%MONEY31%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
75%TICKETS25%
72%MONEY28%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
OSU Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 29.6 ATS +/-: +1.7
ILL
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 4.6 ATS +/-: -5.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
OSU Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 29.6 ATS +/-: +1.7
ILL
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 4.6 ATS +/-: -5.6
⚖️ Over/Under
OSU
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +1.9
ILL
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +1.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ILL
OSU
ILL
OSU
ML
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
100% 5-0
ATS
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
80% 4-1
20% 1-4
TTL
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
20% 1-4
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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