Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Louisville @ Pitt LOU @ PITT

LOUISVILLE

LOUISVILLELOU

3-0  |  Road

34
FINAL
Sat, Sep 27 • 12:00 PM ET
Acrisure Stadium
View Odds Details →

PITTSBURGH

PITTPITT

2-1  |  Home

27
Key Game
Nick Keller
KEY GAME

Nick Keller

#98 | Place kicker
@
Jimmy Scott
KEY GAME

Jimmy Scott

#44 | Defensive Lineman
Player
Nick Keller None-None
Jimmy Scott None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
LOUISVILLE
0%
📊
PITT
100%
LOUISVILLE --
PITT --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
74.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.0
LOUISVILLE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.0 points (Louisville)
LouisvilleLOU (-3.5) 0 PittPITT (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Louisville Cover

76.2%

Pitt Cover

23.8%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around LOU -10.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LOU)

LOU By 1-6 points

15.3%

LOU By 7-13 points

19.7%

PITT By 1-6 points

10.7%

PITT By 7-13 points

7.3%

AI Model Projected Score
42
LOUISVILLE
32
PITTSBURGH
Simulated Score
24
LOUISVILLE
28
PITTSBURGH
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Louisville Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Pitt Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Louisville (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -10.0
C
Sim Pitt (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 74.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 52.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 27, 2025 LOU @ PITT 34 - 27
Nov 23, 2024 PITT @ LOU 9 - 37
Oct 14, 2023 LOU @ PITT 21 - 38
Oct 22, 2022 PITT @ LOU 10 - 24
Sep 26, 2020 LOU @ PITT 20 - 23
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +34.4% more
Louisville: 168.6 vs Pittsburgh: 110.6
Turnovers (L5) +21.6% more
Pittsburgh: 1.4 vs Louisville: 1.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LOU Score 42.0 34
PITT Score 32.0 27
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 20.1 / 19.7 14.0 / 23.0
Rushing Yards 110.6 / 168.6 80.0 / 53.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.1 / 0.47
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.34 / 0.66
Total Yards 397.4 / 413.2 339.0 / 392.0
Turnovers 1.4 / 1.2 5.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
69%TICKETS31%
38%MONEY62%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
46%TICKETS54%
42%MONEY58%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
69%TICKETS31%
59%MONEY41%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LOU
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 9.4 ATS +/-: -1.1
PITT Advantage
5-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 25.0 ATS +/-: +7.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LOU
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 9.4 ATS +/-: -1.1
PITT Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 25.0 ATS +/-: +7.5
⚖️ Over/Under
LOU
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +11.1
PITT
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -2.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PITT
LOU
PITT
LOU
ML
100% 5-0
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
ATS
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
20% 1-4
60% 3-2
TTL
20% 1-4
40% 2-3
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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