Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / California @ Boston College CAL @ BC

CALIFORNIA

CALIFORNIACAL

3-1  |  Road

28
FINAL
Sat, Sep 27 • 3:30 PM ET
Alumni Stadium (Chestnut Hill, MA)
View Odds Details →

BOSTON COLLEGE

BOSTON COLLEGEBC

1-2  |  Home

24
Key Game
Chase Meyer
KEY GAME

Chase Meyer

#91 | Place kicker
@
Luca Lombardo
KEY GAME

Luca Lombardo

#99 | Place kicker
Player
Chase Meyer None-None
Luca Lombardo None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
CALIFORNIA
100%
📊
BOSTON COLLEGE
0%
CALIFORNIA --
BOSTON COLLEGE --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
25.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-13.0
BOSTON COLLEGE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +13.0 points (Boston College)
CaliforniaCAL (-3.5) 0 Boston CollegeBC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

California Cover

17.7%

Boston College Cover

82.3%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around BC -13.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BC)

CAL By 1-6 points

8.6%

CAL By 7-13 points

5.3%

BC By 1-6 points

13.5%

BC By 7-13 points

19.3%

AI Model Projected Score
6
CALIFORNIA
19
BOSTON COLLEGE
Simulated Score
24
CALIFORNIA
28
BOSTON COLLEGE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Boston College Loss
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Boston College Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Boston College (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -13.0
C
Sim Boston College (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 25.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 52.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 27, 2025 CAL @ BC 28 - 24
Key Model Drivers
Total Yards (L5) +22.5% more
Boston College: 423.9 vs California: 346.0
First Downs (L5) +16.4% more
Boston College: 21.7 vs California: 18.7
Rushing Yards (L5) +10.9% more
California: 98.7 vs Boston College: 88.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CAL Score 6.0 28
BC Score 19.0 24
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 21.7 / 18.7 20.0 / 23.0
Rushing Yards 88.0 / 98.7 178.0 / 118.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.4 0.36 / 0.5
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.41 / 0.59
Total Yards 423.9 / 346.0 375.0 / 372.0
Turnovers 1.5 / 1.5 2.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
19%TICKETS81%
67%MONEY33%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
40%TICKETS60%
47%MONEY53%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
58%TICKETS42%
92%MONEY8%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CAL
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-: -9.2
BC
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -4.4 ATS +/-: -3.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CAL
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-: -9.2
BC Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: -4.4 ATS +/-: -3.8
⚖️ Over/Under
CAL
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -2.3
BC
0-5-0
O: 0.0% / U: 100.0% Total +/-: -9.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BC
CAL
BC
CAL
ML
80% 4-1
20% 1-4
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
ATS
60% 3-2
20% 1-4
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
TTL
20% 1-4
40% 2-3
20% 1-4
80% 4-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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