Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Wisconsin @ Alabama WIS @ ALA

WISCONSIN

WISCONSINWIS

2-0  |  Road

14
FINAL
Sat, Sep 13 • 12:00 PM ET
Bryant-Denny Stadium
View Odds Details →

ALABAMA

ALABAMAALA

1-1  |  Home

38
Key Game
Grant Stec
KEY GAME

Grant Stec

#85 | Tight End
@
Zabien Brown
KEY GAME

Zabien Brown

#2 | Defensive Back
Player
Grant Stec None-None
Zabien Brown None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
WISCONSIN
100%
📊
ALABAMA
0%
WISCONSIN --
ALABAMA --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
49.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-21.0
ALABAMA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +21.0 points (Alabama)
WisconsinWIS (-3.5) 0 AlabamaALA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Wisconsin Cover

6.7%

Alabama Cover

93.3%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around ALA -21.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ALA)

WIS By 1-6 points

3.8%

WIS By 7-13 points

1.8%

ALA By 1-6 points

7.9%

ALA By 7-13 points

14.6%

AI Model Projected Score
14
WISCONSIN
35
ALABAMA
Simulated Score
17
WISCONSIN
31
ALABAMA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Alabama Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Alabama Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Alabama (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -21.0
C
Sim Alabama (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -14.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 49.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 48.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 13, 2025 WIS @ ALA 14 - 38
Sep 14, 2024 ALA @ WIS 42 - 10
Sep 5, 2015 WIS @ ALA 17 - 35
Key Model Drivers
Total Yards (L5) +22.7% more
Alabama: 427.7 vs Wisconsin: 348.7
First Downs (L5) +19.3% more
Alabama: 22.4 vs Wisconsin: 18.8
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +17.0% more
Alabama: 0.5 vs Wisconsin: 0.4
Rushing Yards (L5) +14.1% more
Alabama: 151.9 vs Wisconsin: 133.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
WIS Score 14.0 14
ALA Score 35.0 38
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 22.4 / 18.8 22.0 / 14.0
Rushing Yards 151.9 / 133.1 72.0 / 92.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.4 0.25 / 0.55
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.48 / 0.52
Total Yards 427.7 / 348.7 454.0 / 209.0
Turnovers 1.1 / 1.4 0.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
13%TICKETS87%
24%MONEY76%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
41%TICKETS59%
26%MONEY74%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
85%TICKETS15%
34%MONEY66%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WIS
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 15.0 ATS +/-: +6.2
ALA Advantage
5-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 28.8 ATS +/-: +14.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WIS
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 15.0 ATS +/-: +6.2
ALA Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 28.8 ATS +/-: +14.1
⚖️ Over/Under
WIS
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +2.3
ALA
5-0-0
O: 100.0% / U: 0.0% Total +/-: +16.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ALA
WIS
ALA
WIS
ML
100% 5-0
80% 4-1
20% 1-4
40% 2-3
ATS
60% 3-2
40% 2-3
20% 1-4
40% 2-3
TTL
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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