Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Tarleton St @ Army TAR @ ARMY

TARLETON STATE

TARLETON STTAR

1-0  |  Road

30
FINAL
Fri, Aug 29 • 6:00 PM ET
Michie Stadium
View Odds Details →

ARMY

ARMYARMY

0-0  |  Home

27
Key Game
Charlie Mullen
KEY GAME

Charlie Mullen

#83 | Punter
@
Dawson Jones
KEY GAME

Dawson Jones

#95 | Place kicker
Player
Charlie Mullen None-None
Dawson Jones None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
TARLETON ST
100%
📊
ARMY
0%
TARLETON ST --
ARMY --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
40.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-9.1
ARMY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +9.1 points (Army)
Tarleton StTAR (-3.5) 0 ArmyARMY (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Tarleton St Cover

25.7%

Army Cover

74.3%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around ARMY -9.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ARMY)

TAR By 1-6 points

11.4%

TAR By 7-13 points

7.9%

ARMY By 1-6 points

15.7%

ARMY By 7-13 points

19.7%

AI Model Projected Score
15.48
TARLETON STATE
24.62
ARMY
Simulated Score
17
TARLETON STATE
31
ARMY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Army Loss
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Army Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Army (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -9.1
C
Sim Army (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -14.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 40.1
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 48.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 29, 2025 TAR @ ARMY 30 - 27
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +67.9% more
Army: 255.6 vs Tarleton State: 152.3
First Downs (L5) +25.6% more
Army: 20.4 vs Tarleton State: 16.3
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +15.0% more
Army: 0.4 vs Tarleton State: 0.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TAR Score 15.5 30
ARMY Score 24.6 27
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 20.4 / 16.3 24.0 / 16.0
Rushing Yards 255.6 / 152.3 280.0 / 192.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.3 0.38 / 0.33
Time of Possession 0.6 / 0.5 0.61 / 0.39
Total Yards 323.7 / 328.5 411.0 / 344.0
Turnovers 1.3 / 1.3 3.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
4%TICKETS96%
17%MONEY83%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
12%TICKETS88%
22%MONEY78%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
32%TICKETS68%
26%MONEY74%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TAR
--
ARMY Advantage
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 13.5 ATS +/-: +2.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TAR
--
ARMY Advantage
1-2-1 (33.3%)
Margin: 13.5 ATS +/-: +2.9
⚖️ Over/Under
TAR
--
ARMY
3-1-0
O: 75.0% / U: 25.0% Total +/-: +5.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ARMY
TAR
ARMY
TAR
ML
100% 4-0
50% 1-1
75% 3-1
50% 1-1
ATS
75% 3-1
0% 0-2
50% 2-2
0% 0-2
TTL
50% 2-2
50% 1-1
50% 2-2
50% 1-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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