VEGAS
GOLDEN KNIGHTSVGK
13-6-0 | Road
5
PHILADELPHIA
FLYERSPHI
9-10-0 | Home
4
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Shea Theodore
#27 | Defense@
GOALTENDER
Ivan Fedotov
#82 | G| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shea Theodore | None-None | -- | -- | -- |
| Ivan Fedotov | None-None | 3.70 | 0.867 | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
--
GAA
3.70
--
Save %
0.867
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
GOLDEN KNIGHTS
71%
FLYERS
29%
GOLDEN KNIGHTS
--
FLYERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
65%
Under 0
35%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.1
VEGAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Vegas)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-6-4-20+2+4+6
Distribution centered around VGK -0.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (VGK)
VGK By 1 goal
17.9%
VGK By 2-3 goals
19.7%
PHI By 1 goal
17.0%
PHI By 2-3 goals
17.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Vegas
2.87
VEGAS
Philadelphia
2.77
PHILADELPHIA
Simulated Score
Vegas
2
VEGAS
Philadelphia
4
PHILADELPHIA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Golden Knights
Win
71% Win Prob
B
Sim
Flyers
Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Golden Knights (-0)
Win
Proj Goals: -0.1
B
Sim
Flyers (+0)
Loss
Proj Goals: -2.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 5.6
C
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 6.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 19, 2026
PHI @ VGK
2 - 1
Dec 11, 2025
VGK @ PHI
3 - 2
Jan 2, 2025
PHI @ VGK
2 - 5
Nov 25, 2024
VGK @ PHI
5 - 4
Nov 18, 2023
VGK @ PHI
3 - 4
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5)
+14.0% more
Vegas: 24.7
vs
Philadelphia: 21.3
Blocked Shots (L5)
+15.3% more
Philadelphia: 20.8
vs
Vegas: 18.0
Takeaways (L5)
+10.6% more
Philadelphia: 6.1
vs
Vegas: 5.5
Power Play % (L5)
+6.7%
Philadelphia: 15.1%
vs
Vegas: 8.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
VGK Score
2.9
5
PHI Score
2.8
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
20.8 / 18.0
15.0 / 14.0
Faceoff %
53.7 / 49.0
49.2 / 50.8
Hits
21.3 / 24.7
14.0 / 28.0
Power Play %
15.1 / 8.5
0.0 / 100.0
Shots on Goal
29.2 / 31.5
36.0 / 30.0
Takeaways
6.1 / 5.5
6.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PHI
VGK
PHI
VGK
ML
75%
3-1
75%
3-1
50%
2-2
50%
2-2
ATS
25%
1-3
50%
2-2
25%
1-3
75%
3-1
TTL
25%
1-3
25%
1-3
50%
2-2
50%
2-2
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