PHILADELPHIA
FLYERSPHI
17-17-4 | Road
2
VEGAS
GOLDEN KNIGHTSVGK
25-9-3 | Home
5
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Aleksei Kolosov
#35 | G@
GOALTENDER
Shea Theodore
#27 | Defense| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aleksei Kolosov | None-None | 4.15 | 0.846 | -- |
| Shea Theodore | None-None | -- | -- | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
4.15
GAA
--
0.846
Save %
--
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
FLYERS
26%
GOLDEN KNIGHTS
74%
FLYERS
--
GOLDEN KNIGHTS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
35%
Under 0
65%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.2
VEGAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.2 points (Vegas)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around VGK -1.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (VGK)
PHI By 1 goal
11.0%
PHI By 2-3 goals
8.0%
VGK By 1 goal
19.7%
VGK By 2-3 goals
31.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Philadelphia
2.68
PHILADELPHIA
Vegas
3.86
VEGAS
Simulated Score
Philadelphia
2
PHILADELPHIA
Vegas
3
VEGAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Golden Knights
Win
74% Win Prob
B
Sim
Golden Knights
Win
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Golden Knights (+0)
Win
Proj Goals: -1.2
C
Sim
Golden Knights (+0)
Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 6.5
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 5.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 19, 2026
PHI @ VGK
2 - 1
Dec 11, 2025
VGK @ PHI
3 - 2
Jan 2, 2025
PHI @ VGK
2 - 5
Nov 25, 2024
VGK @ PHI
5 - 4
Nov 18, 2023
VGK @ PHI
3 - 4
Key Model Drivers
Shots on Goal (L5)
+17.3% more
Vegas: 32.4
vs
Philadelphia: 27.6
Takeaways (L5)
+8.4% more
Philadelphia: 5.2
vs
Vegas: 4.8
Blocked Shots (L5)
+8.3% more
Philadelphia: 17.2
vs
Vegas: 15.8
Power Play % (L5)
+2.5%
Philadelphia: 11.7%
vs
Vegas: 9.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PHI Score
2.7
2
VGK Score
3.9
5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
15.8 / 17.2
16.0 / 13.0
Faceoff %
46.8 / 49.1
57.4 / 42.6
Hits
16.3 / 17.6
22.0 / 17.0
Power Play %
9.2 / 11.7
0.0 / 50.0
Shots on Goal
32.4 / 27.6
27.0 / 25.0
Takeaways
4.8 / 5.2
4.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
VGK
PHI
VGK
PHI
ML
75%
3-1
80%
4-1
50%
2-2
40%
2-3
ATS
50%
2-2
40%
2-3
75%
3-1
40%
2-3
TTL
25%
1-3
20%
1-4
50%
2-2
40%
2-3
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