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BALTIMORE

RAVENSBAL

10-5  |  Road

31
FINAL
Wed, Dec 25 • 4:30 PM ET
NRG Stadium
View Odds Details →

HOUSTON

TEXANSHOU

9-6  |  Home

2
Key Game
T.J. Tampa
KEY GAME

T.J. Tampa

#27 | Cornerback
@
Mario Edwards Jr.
KEY GAME

Mario Edwards Jr.

#97 | Defensive Tackle
Player
T.J. Tampa None-None
Mario Edwards Jr. None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
RAVENS
57%
📊
TEXANS
43%
RAVENS --
TEXANS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
53.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 55%
Under 0 45%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-8.1
BALTIMORE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +8.1 points (Baltimore)
RavensBAL (-3.5) 0 TexansHOU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Ravens Cover

71.8%

Texans Cover

28.2%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around BAL -8.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BAL)

BAL By 1-6 points

16.1%

BAL By 7-13 points

19.6%

HOU By 1-6 points

12.1%

HOU By 7-13 points

8.7%

AI Model Projected Score
30.93
BALTIMORE
22.84
HOUSTON
Simulated Score
17
BALTIMORE
27
HOUSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Ravens Win
57% Win Prob
D
Sim Texans Loss
50% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Ravens (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -8.1
D
Sim Texans (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -10.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 53.8
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 44.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 5, 2025 HOU @ BAL 44 - 10
Dec 25, 2024 BAL @ HOU 31 - 2
Jan 20, 2024 HOU @ BAL 10 - 34
Sep 10, 2023 HOU @ BAL 9 - 25
Sep 20, 2020 BAL @ HOU 33 - 16
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +51.4% more
Baltimore: 183.5 vs Houston: 89.2
Total Yards (L5) +30.6% more
Baltimore: 408.2 vs Houston: 283.3
Yards Per Play (L5) +26.6% more
Baltimore: 6.7 vs Houston: 4.9
First Downs (L5) +26.0% more
Baltimore: 23.4 vs Houston: 17.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BAL Score 30.9 31
HOU Score 22.8 2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 17.3 / 23.4 10.0 / 25.0
Net Passing Yards 194.1 / 224.7 153.0 / 181.0
Rushing Yards 89.2 / 183.5 58.0 / 251.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.5 0.27 / 0.44
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.41 / 0.59
Total Yards 283.3 / 408.2 211.0 / 432.0
Turnovers 1.3 / 0.8 1.0 / 0.0
Yards Per Play 4.9 / 6.7 3.9 / 7.1
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BAL Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 5.0 ATS +/-: -1.6
HOU
0-4-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -6.3 ATS +/-: -7.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BAL Advantage
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: 5.0 ATS +/-: -1.6
HOU
0-4-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -6.3 ATS +/-: -7.6
⚖️ Over/Under
BAL
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +5.0
HOU
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +3.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
HOU
BAL
HOU
BAL
ML
0% 0-4
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
ATS
0% 0-4
33% 1-2-1
50% 2-2
100% 3-0-1
TTL
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
0% 0-4
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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