PHILADELPHIA
FLYERSPHI
33-38-10 | Road
4
BUFFALO
SABRESBUF
35-39-7 | Home
5
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Aleksei Kolosov
#35 | G@
GOALTENDER
Mattias Samuelsson
#23 | Defense| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aleksei Kolosov | None-None | 4.08 | 0.867 | -- |
| Mattias Samuelsson | None-None | -- | -- | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
4.08
GAA
--
0.867
Save %
--
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
FLYERS
0%
SABRES
100%
FLYERS
--
SABRES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.2
PHILADELPHIA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.2 points (Philadelphia)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-6-4-20+2+4+6
Distribution centered around PHI -0.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PHI)
PHI By 1 goal
18.2%
PHI By 2-3 goals
20.7%
BUF By 1 goal
16.6%
BUF By 2-3 goals
16.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Philadelphia
3.92
PHILADELPHIA
Buffalo
3.73
BUFFALO
Simulated Score
Philadelphia
3
PHILADELPHIA
Buffalo
4
BUFFALO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Flyers
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Sabres
Win
50% Win Prob
B
Puck Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Flyers (-0)
Loss
Proj Goals: -0.2
D
Sim
Sabres (+0)
Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 7.7
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 7.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 14, 2026
PHI @ BUF
2 - 5
Dec 18, 2025
PHI @ BUF
3 - 5
Dec 3, 2025
BUF @ PHI
2 - 5
Apr 17, 2025
PHI @ BUF
4 - 5
Mar 29, 2025
BUF @ PHI
4 - 7
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5)
+41.0% more
Philadelphia: 26.6
vs
Buffalo: 15.7
Blocked Shots (L5)
+35.8% more
Philadelphia: 19.1
vs
Buffalo: 12.3
Power Play % (L5)
+15.3%
Buffalo: 23.1%
vs
Philadelphia: 7.8%
Shots on Goal (L5)
+10.4% more
Buffalo: 30.7
vs
Philadelphia: 27.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PHI Score
3.9
4
BUF Score
3.7
5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
12.3 / 19.1
14.0 / 17.0
Faceoff %
46.6 / 47.2
50.9 / 49.1
Hits
15.7 / 26.6
14.0 / 10.0
Power Play %
23.1 / 7.8
0.0 / 50.0
Shots on Goal
30.7 / 27.8
31.0 / 24.0
Takeaways
5.3 / 4.9
8.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BUF
PHI
BUF
PHI
ML
67%
2-1
75%
3-1
67%
2-1
50%
2-2
ATS
33%
1-2
25%
1-3
100%
3-0
25%
1-3
TTL
33%
1-2
25%
1-3
33%
1-2
50%
2-2
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