BUFFALO
SABRESBUF
30-35-6 | Road
4
PHILADELPHIA
FLYERSPHI
29-36-9 | Home
7
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
#1 | Goaltender@
GOALTENDER
Egor Zamula
#5 | D| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen | None-None | 7.00 | 0.781 | -- |
| Egor Zamula | None-None | -- | -- | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
7.00
GAA
--
0.781
Save %
--
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
SABRES
0%
FLYERS
100%
SABRES
--
FLYERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.2
BUFFALO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.2 points (Buffalo)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-6-4-20+2+4+6
Distribution centered around BUF -0.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BUF)
BUF By 1 goal
18.3%
BUF By 2-3 goals
21.1%
PHI By 1 goal
16.5%
PHI By 2-3 goals
16.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Buffalo
2.65
BUFFALO
Philadelphia
2.43
PHILADELPHIA
Simulated Score
Buffalo
4
BUFFALO
Philadelphia
3
PHILADELPHIA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Sabres
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Sabres
Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Sabres (-0)
Loss
Proj Goals: -0.2
D
Sim
Sabres (-0)
Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 5.1
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 7.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 14, 2026
PHI @ BUF
2 - 5
Dec 18, 2025
PHI @ BUF
3 - 5
Dec 3, 2025
BUF @ PHI
2 - 5
Apr 17, 2025
PHI @ BUF
4 - 5
Mar 29, 2025
BUF @ PHI
4 - 7
Key Model Drivers
Takeaways (L5)
+23.8% more
Buffalo: 4.4
vs
Philadelphia: 3.4
Power Play % (L5)
+2.5%
Buffalo: 11.0%
vs
Philadelphia: 8.4%
Hits (L5)
+24.4% more
Philadelphia: 22.9
vs
Buffalo: 18.4
Faceoff % (L5)
+7.1%
Philadelphia: 49.0%
vs
Buffalo: 41.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
BUF Score
2.7
4
PHI Score
2.4
7
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
15.4 / 14.4
15.0 / 11.0
Faceoff %
49.0 / 41.9
54.9 / 45.1
Hits
22.9 / 18.4
15.0 / 12.0
Power Play %
8.4 / 11.0
66.7 / 50.0
Shots on Goal
25.9 / 25.6
32.0 / 21.0
Takeaways
3.4 / 4.4
5.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PHI
BUF
PHI
BUF
ML
75%
3-1
67%
2-1
50%
2-2
67%
2-1
ATS
25%
1-3
33%
1-2
25%
1-3
100%
3-0
TTL
25%
1-3
33%
1-2
50%
2-2
33%
1-2
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