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DALLAS

STARSDAL

25-13-1  |  Road

4
FINAL
Thu, Jan 9 • 7:00 PM ET
Wells Fargo Center
View Odds Details →

PHILADELPHIA

FLYERSPHI

17-19-5  |  Home

1
Goaltending
Casey DeSmith
GOALTENDER

Casey DeSmith

#1 | Goaltender
@
Egor Zamula
GOALTENDER

Egor Zamula

#5 | D
Player W-L-OTL GAA SV% SO
Casey DeSmith None-None 1.00 0.964 --
Egor Zamula None-None -- -- --
None-None W-L-OTL None-None
1.00 GAA --
0.964 Save % --
-- SO --
AI Model Win Probability
STARS
0%
📊
FLYERS
100%
STARS --
FLYERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.1
DALLAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Dallas)
StarsDAL (-3.5) 0 FlyersPHI (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Stars Cover

51.6%

Flyers Cover

48.4%

-6-4-20+2+4+6
Distribution centered around DAL -0.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DAL)

DAL By 1 goal

17.8%

DAL By 2-3 goals

19.5%

PHI By 1 goal

17.1%

PHI By 2-3 goals

17.8%

AI Model Projected Score
3
DALLAS
2.92
PHILADELPHIA
Simulated Score
3
DALLAS
2
PHILADELPHIA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Stars Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Stars Win
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Stars (-0) Win
Proj Goals: -0.1
D
Sim Stars (-0) Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 5.9
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 5.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 29, 2026 DAL @ PHI 1 - 2
Nov 15, 2025 PHI @ DAL 1 - 5
Mar 22, 2025 PHI @ DAL 2 - 3
Jan 9, 2025 DAL @ PHI 4 - 1
Jan 18, 2024 DAL @ PHI 1 - 5
Key Model Drivers
Power Play % (L5) +27.1%
Dallas: 37.9% vs Philadelphia: 10.9%
Shots on Goal (L5) +10.0% more
Dallas: 33.0 vs Philadelphia: 29.7
Faceoff % (L5) +9.9%
Dallas: 53.5% vs Philadelphia: 43.6%
Hits (L5) +57.4% more
Philadelphia: 20.1 vs Dallas: 12.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DAL Score 3.0 4
PHI Score 2.9 1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots 15.4 / 13.1 20.0 / 15.0
Faceoff % 43.6 / 53.5 54.4 / 45.6
Hits 20.1 / 12.8 21.0 / 5.0
Power Play % 1086.0 / 3793.0 0.0 / 0.0
Shots on Goal 29.7 / 33.0 28.0 / 23.0
Takeaways 3.6 / 3.3 5.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
82%TICKETS18%
87%MONEY13%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
63%TICKETS37%
92%MONEY8%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
77%TICKETS23%
80%MONEY20%
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PHI
DAL
PHI
DAL
ML
75% 3-1
33% 1-2
50% 2-2
33% 1-2
ATS
25% 1-3
0% 0-3
25% 1-3
33% 1-2
TTL
25% 1-3
100% 3-0
50% 2-2
33% 1-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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