PHILADELPHIA
FLYERSPHI
1-0-0 | Road
3
CALGARY
FLAMESCGY
1-0-0 | Home
6
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Ivan Fedotov
#82 | G@
GOALTENDER
Dustin Wolf
#32 | Goaltender| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ivan Fedotov | None-None | 5.12 | 0.839 | -- |
| Dustin Wolf | None-None | 3.05 | 0.925 | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
5.12
GAA
Ldr 3.05
0.839
Save %
Ldr 0.925
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
FLYERS
100%
FLAMES
0%
FLYERS
--
FLAMES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.8
CALGARY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.8 points (Calgary)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around CGY -0.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CGY)
PHI By 1 goal
13.5%
PHI By 2-3 goals
11.3%
CGY By 1 goal
19.6%
CGY By 2-3 goals
27.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Philadelphia
2.85
PHILADELPHIA
Calgary
3.61
CALGARY
Simulated Score
Philadelphia
2
PHILADELPHIA
Calgary
3
CALGARY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Flames
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Flames
Win
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Flames (+0)
Win
Proj Goals: -0.8
D
Sim
Flames (+0)
Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 6.5
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 5.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Dec 31, 2025
PHI @ CGY
1 - 5
Nov 2, 2025
CGY @ PHI
2 - 1
Mar 4, 2025
CGY @ PHI
6 - 3
Oct 12, 2024
PHI @ CGY
3 - 6
Jan 6, 2024
CGY @ PHI
2 - 3
Key Model Drivers
Power Play % (L5)
+12.7%
Calgary: 21.4%
vs
Philadelphia: 8.7%
Shots on Goal (L5)
+8.2% more
Calgary: 31.6
vs
Philadelphia: 29.2
Hits (L5)
+29.0% more
Philadelphia: 27.1
vs
Calgary: 19.2
Blocked Shots (L5)
+26.3% more
Philadelphia: 21.5
vs
Calgary: 15.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PHI Score
2.9
3
CGY Score
3.6
6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
15.8 / 21.5
15.0 / 17.0
Faceoff %
47.1 / 46.8
45.5 / 54.5
Hits
19.2 / 27.1
29.0 / 27.0
Power Play %
21.4 / 8.7
40.0 / 25.0
Shots on Goal
31.6 / 29.2
32.0 / 40.0
Takeaways
6.2 / 7.3
5.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CGY
PHI
CGY
PHI
ML
33%
1-2
75%
3-1
33%
1-2
50%
2-2
ATS
33%
1-2
25%
1-3
33%
1-2
25%
1-3
TTL
67%
2-1
25%
1-3
0%
0-3
50%
2-2
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