Home / NFL Projections NFL / Packers @ Patriots GB @ NE

GREEN BAY

PACKERSGB

6-3  |  Road

45
FINAL
Sun, Nov 8 • 4:25 PM ET
Gillette Stadium
View Odds Details →

NEW ENGLAND

PATRIOTSNE

5-4  |  Home

27
Key Game
Daniel Whelan
KEY GAME

Daniel Whelan

#19 | Punter
@
Mitch Wishnowsky
KEY GAME

Mitch Wishnowsky

#19 | Punter
Player
Daniel Whelan None-None
Mitch Wishnowsky None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
PACKERS
44%
📊
PATRIOTS
56%
▲ Edge: +4.90% (GB)
PACKERS 39% Book Odds: +155
PATRIOTS 63% Book Odds: -173
Book Implied: 39.20% / 63.40%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
42.4
Projected
Book Total
44.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +2.1 (Under)
Over 44.5 45%
Under 44.5 55%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.0
NEW ENGLAND
Book Spread
-3
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (New England)
PackersGB (+3) 0 PatriotsNE (-3)
New England Patriots (-3) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Packers Cover

33.4%

Patriots Cover

66.6%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around NE -6.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NE)

GB By 1-6 points

13.5%

GB By 7-13 points

10.4%

NE By 1-6 points

16.7%

NE By 7-13 points

19.0%

AI Model Projected Score
18.2
GREEN BAY
Book Implied: 20.80
24.2
NEW ENGLAND
Book Implied: 23.80
Simulated Score
22
GREEN BAY
Book Implied: 20.80
25
NEW ENGLAND
Book Implied: 23.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Patriots Loss
56% Win Prob
D
Sim Patriots Loss
61% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Patriots (-3) Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
B
Sim Packers (+3) Win
Proj Spread: +3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u44.5 Loss
Proj Total: 42.4
C
Sim o44.5 Win
Proj Total: 47.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 8, 2026 GB @ NE 45 - 27
Oct 2, 2022 NE @ GB 24 - 27
Nov 4, 2018 GB @ NE 17 - 31
Nov 30, 2014 NE @ GB 21 - 26
Dec 19, 2010 GB @ NE 27 - 31
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +87.4% more
New England: 121.4 vs Green Bay: 64.8
Yards Per Play (L5) +16.1% more
New England: 6.1 vs Green Bay: 5.3
Total Yards (L5) +8.0% more
New England: 366.3 vs Green Bay: 339.1
Turnovers (L5) +14.6% more
Green Bay: 1.6 vs New England: 1.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
GB Score 18.2 45
NE Score 24.2 27
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 19.8 / 18.9 22.0 / 22.0
Net Passing Yards 245.0 / 274.4 293.0 / 349.0
Rushing Yards 121.4 / 64.8 94.0 / 129.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.44 / 0.33
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.42 / 0.58
Total Yards 366.3 / 339.1 387.0 / 478.0
Turnovers 1.4 / 1.6 4.0 / 0.0
Yards Per Play 6.1 / 5.3 6.3 / 7.5
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +105 / -125 → +155 / -173 ↑
34%TICKETS66%
57%MONEY43%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5 → +3 / -3 ↑
64%TICKETS36%
74%MONEY26%
Total (O/U)
Open: 46.5 → 44.5 ↓
80%TICKETS20%
76%MONEY24%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
GB Advantage
6-3-0 (66.7%)
Margin: 2.8 ATS +/-: +2.6
NE
5-4-0 (55.6%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-: -0.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
GB Advantage
6-3-0 (66.7%)
Margin: 2.8 ATS +/-: +2.6
NE
3-5-1 (37.5%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-: -0.6
⚖️ Over/Under
GB
3-6-0
O: 33.3% / U: 66.7% Total +/-: -1.4
NE
6-3-0
O: 66.7% / U: 33.3% Total +/-: +0.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NE
GB
NE
GB
ML
78% 7-2
67% 6-3
78% 7-2
56% 5-4
ATS
25% 2-6-1
38% 3-5-1
38% 3-5-1
50% 4-4-1
TTL
11% 1-8
33% 3-6
44% 4-5
67% 6-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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