Home / NFL Projections NFL / Jets @ Chiefs NYJ @ KC

NEW YORK

JETSNYJ

2-7  |  Road

12
FINAL
Sun, Nov 8 • 1:00 PM ET
Arrowhead Stadium
View Odds Details →

KANSAS CITY

CHIEFSKC

6-2  |  Home

35
Key Game
Austin McNamara
KEY GAME

Austin McNamara

#14 | Punter
@
Matt Araiza
KEY GAME

Matt Araiza

#14 | Punter
Player
Austin McNamara None-None
Matt Araiza None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
JETS
22%
📊
CHIEFS
78%
▲ Edge: +1% (NYJ)
JETS 21% Book Odds: +380
CHIEFS 83% Book Odds: -500
Book Implied: 20.80% / 83.30%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
43.0
Projected
Book Total
47.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +4.5 (Under)
Over 47.5 37%
Under 47.5 63%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.0
KANSAS CITY
Book Spread
-9.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 points (Kansas City)
JetsNYJ (+9.5) 0 ChiefsKC (-9.5)
Kansas City Chiefs (-9.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Jets Cover

23.8%

Chiefs Cover

76.2%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around KC -10.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (KC)

NYJ By 1-6 points

10.7%

NYJ By 7-13 points

7.3%

KC By 1-6 points

15.3%

KC By 7-13 points

19.7%

AI Model Projected Score
16.5
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 19
26.5
KANSAS CITY
Book Implied: 28.50
Simulated Score
16
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 19
27
KANSAS CITY
Book Implied: 28.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Chiefs Win
78% Win Prob
A
Sim Chiefs Win
86% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Chiefs (-9.5) Win
Proj Spread: -10.0
D
Sim Chiefs (-9.5) Win
Proj Spread: -11.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI u47.5 Win
Proj Total: 43.0
B
Sim u47.5 Win
Proj Total: 43.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 8, 2026 NYJ @ KC 12 - 35
Oct 1, 2023 KC @ NYJ 23 - 20
Nov 1, 2020 NYJ @ KC 9 - 35
Dec 3, 2017 KC @ NYJ 31 - 38
Sep 25, 2016 NYJ @ KC 3 - 24
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +31.0% more
New York: 1.0 vs Kansas City: 0.7
Rushing Yards (L5) +13.5% more
New York: 122.3 vs Kansas City: 105.7
First Downs (L5) +8.5% more
New York: 20.3 vs Kansas City: 18.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NYJ Score 16.5 12
KC Score 26.5 35
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 18.6 / 20.3 27.0 / 15.0
Net Passing Yards 244.6 / 232.0 228.0 / 123.0
Rushing Yards 105.7 / 122.3 163.0 / 106.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.55 / 0.17
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.48 / 0.52
Total Yards 350.3 / 354.3 391.0 / 229.0
Turnovers 0.7 / 1.0 2.0 / 1.0
Yards Per Play 5.9 / 6.1 6.0 / 3.7
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +350 / -455 → +380 / -500 ↑
2%TICKETS98%
1%MONEY99%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +9.5 / -9.5 → +9.5 / -9.5
24%TICKETS76%
29%MONEY71%
Total (O/U)
Open: 41.5 → 47.5 ↑
66%TICKETS34%
72%MONEY28%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NYJ
2-7-0 (22.2%)
Margin: -4.6 ATS +/-: -1.8
KC Advantage
6-2-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 7.4 ATS +/-: +2.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NYJ
4-4-1 (50.0%)
Margin: -4.6 ATS +/-: -1.8
KC
4-4-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 7.4 ATS +/-: +2.9
⚖️ Over/Under
NYJ
4-5-0
O: 44.4% / U: 55.6% Total +/-: +1.5
KC
3-5-0
O: 37.5% / U: 62.5% Total +/-: -1.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
KC
NYJ
KC
NYJ
ML
100% 8-0
67% 6-3
88% 7-1
67% 6-3
ATS
62% 5-3
50% 4-4-1
38% 3-5
50% 4-4-1
TTL
50% 4-4
33% 3-6
62% 5-3
33% 3-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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