Home / NHL Projections NHL / Rangers @ Maple Leafs NYR @ TOR

NEW YORK

RANGERSNYR

7-4-1  |  Road

4
FINAL
Thu, Oct 22 • 7:00 PM ET
Scotiabank Arena
View Odds Details →

TORONTO

MAPLE LEAFSTOR

6-4-2  |  Home

5
Goaltending
Dylan Garand
GOALTENDER

Dylan Garand

#33 | Goaltender
@
Sergei Bobrovsky
GOALTENDER

Sergei Bobrovsky

#72 | Goaltender
Player W-L-OTL GAA SV% SO
Dylan Garand None-None 5.04 0.857 --
Sergei Bobrovsky None-None 4.04 0.840 --
None-None W-L-OTL None-None
5.04 GAA Ldr 4.04
0.857 Ldr Save % 0.840
-- SO --
AI Model Win Probability
RANGERS
62%
📊
MAPLE LEAFS
38%
▲ Edge: +9.20% (NYR)
RANGERS 53% Book Odds: -112
MAPLE LEAFS 52% Book Odds: -108
Book Implied: 52.80% / 51.90%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.0
Projected
Book Total
6.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +0.5 (Under)
Over 6.5 41%
Under 6.5 59%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.6
NEW YORK
Book Spread
-1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (New York)
RangersNYR (-1.5) 0 Maple LeafsTOR (+1.5)
New York Rangers (-1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Rangers Cover

78.8%

Maple Leafs Cover

21.2%

-6-4-20+2+4+6
Distribution centered around NYR -1.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYR)

NYR By 1 goal

18.9%

NYR By 2-3 goals

34.9%

TOR By 1 goal

8.6%

TOR By 2-3 goals

5.5%

AI Model Projected Score
3.8
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 4
2.2
TORONTO
Book Implied: 2.50
Simulated Score
3
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 4
2
TORONTO
Book Implied: 2.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Rangers Loss
62% Win Prob
C
Sim Rangers Loss
70% Win Prob
A
Puck Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Rangers (-1.5) Loss
Proj Goals: -1.6
D
Sim Maple Leafs (+1.5) Win
Proj Goals: +1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI u6.5 Loss
Proj Total: 6.0
B
Sim u6.5 Loss
Proj Total: 5.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 22, 2026 NYR @ TOR 4 - 5
Mar 25, 2026 NYR @ TOR 3 - 4
Mar 5, 2026 TOR @ NYR 2 - 6
Oct 16, 2025 NYR @ TOR 1 - 2
Mar 20, 2025 TOR @ NYR 4 - 3
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5) +21.5% more
New York: 21.2 vs Toronto: 16.6
Power Play % (L5) +6.3%
Toronto: 24.9% vs New York: 18.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NYR Score 3.8 4
TOR Score 2.2 5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots 15.3 / 15.9 16.0 / 6.0
Faceoff % 52.2 / 53.6 49.3 / 50.7
Hits 16.6 / 21.2 19.0 / 34.0
Power Play % 24.9 / 18.5 50.0 / 0.0
Shots on Goal 26.9 / 26.2 35.0 / 25.0
Takeaways 3.8 / 3.8 3.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -112 / -108 → -112 / -108
49%TICKETS51%
3%MONEY97%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5 → -1.5 / +1.5
39%TICKETS61%
24%MONEY76%
Total (O/U)
Open: 6.5 → 6.5
86%TICKETS14%
91%MONEY9%
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOR
NYR
TOR
NYR
ML
63% 12-7
68% 13-6
47% 9-10
53% 10-9
ATS
53% 10-9
58% 11-8
63% 12-7
47% 9-10
TTL
53% 10-9
63% 12-7
47% 9-10
47% 9-10
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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