Home / NFL Projections NFL / Patriots @ Dolphins NE @ MIA

NEW ENGLAND

PATRIOTSNE

5-3  |  Road

24
FINAL
Sun, Nov 1 • 4:25 PM ET
Hard Rock Stadium
View Odds Details →

MIAMI

DOLPHINSMIA

1-6  |  Home

19
Key Game
Mitch Wishnowsky
KEY GAME

Mitch Wishnowsky

#19 | Punter
@
Bradley Pinion
KEY GAME

Bradley Pinion

#48 | Punter
Player
Mitch Wishnowsky None-None
Bradley Pinion None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
PATRIOTS
74%
📊
DOLPHINS
26%
PATRIOTS 78% Book Odds: -345
DOLPHINS 27% Book Odds: +275
Book Implied: 77.50% / 26.70%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
40.6
Projected
Book Total
41.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +0.9 (Under)
Over 41.5 47%
Under 41.5 53%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-9.0
NEW ENGLAND
Book Spread
-7
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (New England)
PatriotsNE (-7) 0 DolphinsMIA (+7)
New England Patriots (-7) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Patriots Cover

74.0%

Dolphins Cover

26.0%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around NE -9.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NE)

NE By 1-6 points

15.7%

NE By 7-13 points

19.7%

MIA By 1-6 points

11.5%

MIA By 7-13 points

8.0%

AI Model Projected Score
24.8
NEW ENGLAND
Book Implied: 24.20
15.8
MIAMI
Book Implied: 17.20
Simulated Score
33
NEW ENGLAND
Book Implied: 24.20
13
MIAMI
Book Implied: 17.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Patriots Win
74% Win Prob
A
Sim Patriots Win
98% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Patriots (-7) Loss
Proj Spread: -9.0
C
Sim Patriots (-7) Loss
Proj Spread: -20.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u41.5 Loss
Proj Total: 40.6
D
Sim o41.5 Win
Proj Total: 46.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 1, 2026 NE @ MIA 24 - 19
Jan 4, 2026 MIA @ NE 10 - 38
Sep 14, 2025 NE @ MIA 33 - 27
Nov 24, 2024 NE @ MIA 15 - 34
Oct 6, 2024 MIA @ NE 15 - 10
Key Model Drivers
Net Passing Yards (L5) +42.1% more
New England: 277.0 vs Miami: 160.3
Turnovers (L5) +24.4% more
New England: 1.6 vs Miami: 1.2
Total Yards (L5) +21.3% more
New England: 394.9 vs Miami: 310.8
Yards Per Play (L5) +19.4% more
New England: 6.6 vs Miami: 5.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NE Score 24.8 24
MIA Score 15.8 19
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 19.0 / 21.9 17.0 / 16.0
Net Passing Yards 160.3 / 277.0 195.0 / 182.0
Rushing Yards 150.4 / 117.8 74.0 / 131.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.5 / 0.43
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.47 / 0.53
Total Yards 310.8 / 394.9 269.0 / 313.0
Turnovers 1.2 / 1.6 1.0 / 1.0
Yards Per Play 5.3 / 6.6 4.5 / 5.3
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -340 / +270 → -345 / +275
96%TICKETS4%
98%MONEY2%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -7 / +7 → -7 / +7
76%TICKETS24%
78%MONEY22%
Total (O/U)
Open: 45.5 → 41.5 ↓
65%TICKETS35%
51%MONEY49%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NE Advantage
5-3-0 (62.5%)
Margin: 2.8 ATS +/-: +1.9
MIA
1-6-0 (14.3%)
Margin: -9.1 ATS +/-: -1.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NE
3-4-1 (42.9%)
Margin: 2.8 ATS +/-: +1.9
MIA Advantage
4-3-0 (57.1%)
Margin: -9.1 ATS +/-: -1.5
⚖️ Over/Under
NE
5-3-0
O: 62.5% / U: 37.5% Total +/-: -2.4
MIA
4-3-0
O: 57.1% / U: 42.9% Total +/-: +0.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIA
NE
MIA
NE
ML
86% 6-1
88% 7-1
71% 5-2
88% 7-1
ATS
50% 3-3-1
29% 2-5-1
50% 3-3-1
29% 2-5-1
TTL
29% 2-5
12% 1-7
86% 6-1
38% 3-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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