Home / NFL Projections NFL / Chiefs @ Broncos KC @ DEN

KANSAS CITY

CHIEFSKC

5-2  |  Road

24
FINAL
Sun, Nov 1 • 4:25 PM ET
Empower Field at Mile High
View Odds Details →

DENVER

BRONCOSDEN

6-2  |  Home

28
Key Game
Matt Araiza
KEY GAME

Matt Araiza

#14 | Punter
@
Jeremy Crawshaw
KEY GAME

Jeremy Crawshaw

#16 | Punter
Player
Matt Araiza None-None
Jeremy Crawshaw None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
CHIEFS
45%
📊
BRONCOS
55%
▲ Edge: +2.80% (DEN)
CHIEFS 50% Book Odds: -100
BRONCOS 52% Book Odds: -110
Book Implied: 50% / 52.40%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
44.5
Projected
Book Total
41.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 (Over)
Over 41.5 59%
Under 41.5 41%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.5
DENVER
Book Spread
+1
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.5 points (Denver)
ChiefsKC (-1) 0 BroncosDEN (+1)
Denver Broncos (+1) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Chiefs Cover

37.4%

Broncos Cover

62.6%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around DEN -4.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DEN)

KC By 1-6 points

14.4%

KC By 7-13 points

11.7%

DEN By 1-6 points

16.9%

DEN By 7-13 points

18.3%

AI Model Projected Score
20
KANSAS CITY
Book Implied: 21.20
24.5
DENVER
Book Implied: 20.20
Simulated Score
20
KANSAS CITY
Book Implied: 21.20
23
DENVER
Book Implied: 20.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Broncos Win
55% Win Prob
D
Sim Broncos Win
61% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Broncos (+1) Win
Proj Spread: -4.5
A
Sim Broncos (+1) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o41.5 Win
Proj Total: 44.5
B
Sim o41.5 Win
Proj Total: 43.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 1, 2026 KC @ DEN 24 - 28
Sep 14, 2026 DEN @ KC 10 - 31
Dec 25, 2025 DEN @ KC 20 - 13
Nov 16, 2025 KC @ DEN 19 - 22
Jan 5, 2025 KC @ DEN 0 - 38
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +56.2% more
Kansas City: 1.1 vs Denver: 0.5
Net Passing Yards (L5) +20.2% more
Kansas City: 220.6 vs Denver: 176.1
Yards Per Play (L5) +16.4% more
Kansas City: 5.9 vs Denver: 4.9
Total Yards (L5) +14.9% more
Kansas City: 337.1 vs Denver: 286.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
KC Score 20.0 24
DEN Score 24.5 28
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 16.9 / 17.5 21.0 / 22.0
Net Passing Yards 176.1 / 220.6 217.0 / 309.0
Rushing Yards 110.8 / 116.5 77.0 / 90.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.3 0.18 / 0.43
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.48 / 0.52
Total Yards 286.9 / 337.1 294.0 / 399.0
Turnovers 0.5 / 1.1 0.0 / 0.0
Yards Per Play 4.9 / 5.9 5.2 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +105 / -125 → -100 / -110 ↓
69%TICKETS31%
71%MONEY29%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5 → -1 / +1 ↓
54%TICKETS46%
53%MONEY47%
Total (O/U)
Open: 43.5 → 41.5 ↓
61%TICKETS39%
69%MONEY31%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
KC
5-2-0 (71.4%)
Margin: 5.1 ATS +/-: +1.3
DEN Advantage
6-2-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-: +0.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
KC
3-4-0 (42.9%)
Margin: 5.1 ATS +/-: +1.3
DEN Advantage
6-2-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-: +0.5
⚖️ Over/Under
KC
3-4-0
O: 42.9% / U: 57.1% Total +/-: -1.4
DEN
3-5-0
O: 37.5% / U: 62.5% Total +/-: -1.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DEN
KC
DEN
KC
ML
62% 5-3
100% 7-0
62% 5-3
86% 6-1
ATS
88% 7-1
57% 4-3
50% 4-4
29% 2-5
TTL
62% 5-3
43% 3-4
50% 4-4
57% 4-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Fantasy Football Week 9: Trade Targets and Players to Deal
si 31 minutes ago
Broncos' Win Streak Faces Test in Carolina: Surtain vs. McMillan…
si 6 hours, 39 minutes ago
Jets' Garrett Wilson Enters Concussion Protocol Ahead of Chiefs …
nbcsports 12 hours, 32 minutes ago
Mahomes Eclipses Manning for Most 3-TD Games in First 10 Seasons
yahoo 12 hours, 36 minutes ago
Jets' Garrett Wilson Enters Concussion Protocol, Sunday Status v…
bleacherreport 12 hours, 38 minutes ago