STANFORD
STANFORDSTAN
4-5 | Road
24
LOUISVILLE
LOUISVILLELOU
5-3 | Home
52
Key Game
KEY GAME
Aidan Flintoft
#37 | Punter@
👤
KEY GAME
Niall Hayes
#91 | Punter| Player | |
|---|---|
| Aidan Flintoft | None-None |
| Niall Hayes | None-None |
None-None
W-L
None-None
AI Model Win Probability
STANFORD
19%
LOUISVILLE
81%
▲ Edge: +11.10% (STAN)
STANFORD
8%
Book Odds: +1100
LOUISVILLE
96%
Book Odds: -2100
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
58.0
Projected
Book Total
59.5
Over / Under Line
▼
Edge: +1.5 (Under)
Over 59.5
48%
Under 59.5
52%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+15.0
STANFORD
Book Spread
+22.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.5 points (Stanford)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around STAN +15.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (STAN)
STAN By 1-6 points
7.2%
STAN By 7-13 points
4.1%
LOU By 1-6 points
12.2%
LOU By 7-13 points
18.5%
AI Model Projected Score
Stanford
21.5
STANFORD
Book Implied: 18.50
Louisville
36.5
LOUISVILLE
Book Implied: 41
Simulated Score
Stanford
20
STANFORD
Book Implied: 18.50
Louisville
38
LOUISVILLE
Book Implied: 41
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
Louisville
Win
81% Win Prob
A
Sim
Louisville
Win
96% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
Stanford (+22.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: +15.0
A
Sim
Stanford (+22.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: +18.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI
u59.5
Loss
Proj Total: 58.0
D
Sim
u59.5
Loss
Proj Total: 58.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Oct 31, 2026
STAN @ LOU
24 - 52
Nov 16, 2024
LOU @ STAN
35 - 38
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5)
+55.5% more
Louisville: 212.8
vs
Stanford: 136.9
Turnovers (L5)
+38.0% more
Louisville: 1.3
vs
Stanford: 0.9
Total Yards (L5)
+18.5% more
Louisville: 463.9
vs
Stanford: 391.3
Third Down Efficiency (L5)
+9.0% more
Louisville: 0.4
vs
Stanford: 0.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
STAN Score
21.5
24
LOU Score
36.5
52
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs
19.8 / 21.2
22.0 / 15.0
Rushing Yards
212.8 / 136.9
296.0 / 81.0
Third Down Efficiency
0.4 / 0.4
0.55 / 0.12
Time of Possession
0.5 / 0.5
0.49 / 0.51
Total Yards
463.9 / 391.3
545.0 / 351.0
Turnovers
1.3 / 0.9
1.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +850 / -1450
→
+1100 / -2100
↑
Spread (ATS)
Open: +21 / -21
→
+22.5 / -22.5
↑
Total (O/U)
Open: 61.5
→
59.5
↓
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
STAN
4-5-0
(44.4%)
Margin: -17.0
ATS +/-: -7.7
LOU
Advantage
6-3-0
(66.7%)
Margin: 14.9
ATS +/-: +2.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
STAN
3-6-0
(33.3%)
Margin: -17.0
ATS +/-: -7.7
LOU
Advantage
6-3-0
(66.7%)
Margin: 14.9
ATS +/-: +2.9
⚖️ Over/Under
STAN
7-2-0
O: 77.8% / U: 22.2%
Total +/-: +4.8
LOU
7-2-0
O: 77.8% / U: 22.2%
Total +/-: +8.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LOU
STAN
LOU
STAN
ML
78%
7-2
78%
7-2
89%
8-1
78%
7-2
ATS
56%
5-4
56%
5-4
67%
6-3
56%
5-4
TTL
33%
3-6
22%
2-7
56%
5-4
67%
6-3
Contextual Game News
Illinois Topples Nebraska 24-13: Key Moments and Standout Perfor…
Oregon Leads Pack of Three-Loss Teams Eyeing Chaos in Expanded C…
Houston TE Patrick Overmyer Named John Mackey Award Semifinalist…
Illinois High School Football: 12 Stars Shine in Second-Round Pl…
Virginia Tech's Grunkemeyer and Reynolds Garner National Attenti…