VANCOUVER
CANUCKSVAN
2-6-0 | Road
2
NEW YORK
ISLANDERSNYI
3-3-0 | Home
3
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Leevi Merilainen
#31 | Goaltender@
GOALTENDER
Ilya Sorokin
#30 | Goaltender| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leevi Merilainen | None-None | 3.03 | 0.921 | -- |
| Ilya Sorokin | None-None | 2.00 | 0.923 | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
3.03
GAA
Ldr 2.00
0.921
Save %
Ldr 0.923
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
CANUCKS
23%
ISLANDERS
77%
▲ Edge: +9.30% (NYI)
CANUCKS
35%
Book Odds: +186
ISLANDERS
68%
Book Odds: -209
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.5
Projected
Book Total
6.0
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +0.5 (Over)
Over 6.0
59%
Under 6.0
41%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.5
VANCOUVER
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around VAN +1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (VAN)
VAN By 1 goal
9.2%
VAN By 2-3 goals
6.1%
NYI By 1 goal
19.1%
NYI By 2-3 goals
34.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Vancouver
2.5
VANCOUVER
Book Implied: 2.20
New York
4
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 3.80
Simulated Score
Vancouver
2
VANCOUVER
Book Implied: 2.20
New York
3
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 3.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
Islanders
Win
77% Win Prob
A
Sim
Islanders
Win
69% Win Prob
A
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Canucks (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Goals: +1.5
D
Sim
Canucks (+1.5)
Win
Proj Goals: +1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
👑 Top Selection
AI
o6.0
Loss
Proj Total: 6.5
B
Sim
u6.0
Win
Proj Total: 5.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Oct 13, 2026
VAN @ NYI
2 - 3
Jan 19, 2026
NYI @ VAN
4 - 3
Dec 19, 2025
VAN @ NYI
4 - 1
Mar 26, 2025
VAN @ NYI
5 - 2
Nov 14, 2024
NYI @ VAN
5 - 2
Key Model Drivers
Power Play % (L5)
+12.7%
New York: 29.2%
vs
Vancouver: 16.5%
Shots on Goal (L5)
+8.9% more
New York: 23.2
vs
Vancouver: 21.3
Faceoff % (L5)
+6.0%
New York: 51.1%
vs
Vancouver: 45.1%
Takeaways (L5)
+32.5% more
Vancouver: 5.5
vs
New York: 3.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
VAN Score
2.5
2
NYI Score
4.0
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
14.7 / 14.8
13.0 / 12.0
Faceoff %
51.1 / 45.1
60.0 / 40.0
Hits
24.6 / 26.4
18.0 / 33.0
Power Play %
29.2 / 16.5
0.0 / 25.0
Shots on Goal
23.2 / 21.3
38.0 / 26.0
Takeaways
3.7 / 5.5
2.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +200 / -245
→
+186 / -209
↓
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 6.5
→
6
↓
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYI
VAN
NYI
VAN
ML
64%
9-5
81%
13-3
64%
9-5
69%
11-5
ATS
43%
6-8
50%
8-8
50%
7-7
44%
7-9
TTL
23%
3-10-1
50%
8-8
77%
10-3-1
56%
9-7
Contextual Game News
Islanders' Heineman Ejected for Knee-on-Knee Hit; Suspension Loo…
Emil Heineman Ejected for Knee-on-Knee Hit Injuring Oilers' Isaa…
Lost Gear, Delayed Debut: Dakota Joshua's Unbelievable NHL Retur…
Islanders' Overtime Heroics Set Up Brutal Test Against NHL's Eli…
Teen Sensation Schaefer Etches NHL History as Islanders Edge Wil…