TAMPA BAY
LIGHTNINGTB
4-2-0 | Road
1
NEW YORK
RANGERSNYR
6-2-0 | Home
4
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Andrei Vasilevskiy
#88 | Goaltender@
GOALTENDER
Dylan Garand
#33 | Goaltender| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrei Vasilevskiy | None-None | 3.13 | 0.864 | -- |
| Dylan Garand | None-None | 1.00 | 0.962 | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
3.13
GAA
Ldr 1.00
0.864
Save %
Ldr 0.962
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
LIGHTNING
58%
RANGERS
42%
LIGHTNING
62%
Book Odds: -162
RANGERS
42%
Book Odds: +136
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.5
Projected
Book Total
6.5
Over / Under Line
▼
Edge: +1.0 (Under)
Over 6.5
43%
Under 6.5
57%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.5
NEW YORK
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-6-4-20+2+4+6
Distribution centered around NYR +1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYR)
TB By 1 goal
19.1%
TB By 2-3 goals
34.1%
NYR By 1 goal
9.2%
NYR By 2-3 goals
6.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Tampa Bay
3.5
TAMPA BAY
Book Implied: 4
New York
2
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 2.50
Simulated Score
Tampa Bay
2
TAMPA BAY
Book Implied: 4
New York
3
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 2.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Lightning
Loss
58% Win Prob
C
Sim
Rangers
Win
69% Win Prob
A
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Rangers (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Goals: +1.5
D
Sim
Rangers (+1.5)
Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI
u6.5
Win
Proj Total: 5.5
C
Sim
u6.5
Win
Proj Total: 5.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Oct 13, 2026
TB @ NYR
1 - 4
Oct 1, 2026
TB @ NYR
1 - 5
Apr 15, 2026
NYR @ TB
4 - 2
Nov 29, 2025
TB @ NYR
4 - 1
Nov 12, 2025
NYR @ TB
7 - 3
Key Model Drivers
Shots on Goal (L5)
+20.7% more
Tampa Bay: 29.7
vs
New York: 23.5
Hits (L5)
+33.7% more
New York: 26.6
vs
Tampa Bay: 19.9
Power Play % (L5)
+17.1%
New York: 32.9%
vs
Tampa Bay: 15.7%
Faceoff % (L5)
+8.9%
New York: 55.4%
vs
Tampa Bay: 46.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TB Score
3.5
1
NYR Score
2.0
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
13.9 / 14.4
14.0 / 12.0
Faceoff %
55.4 / 46.5
61.1 / 38.9
Hits
26.6 / 19.9
37.0 / 22.0
Power Play %
3286.0 / 1573.0
0.0 / 0.0
Shots on Goal
23.5 / 29.7
23.0 / 26.0
Takeaways
4.2 / 4.3
3.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -170 / +142
→
-162 / +136
↑
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5
→
-1.5 / +1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 5.5
→
6.5
↑
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYR
TB
NYR
TB
ML
64%
9-5
54%
7-6
50%
7-7
85%
11-2
ATS
57%
8-6
46%
6-7
50%
7-7
54%
7-6
TTL
57%
8-6
46%
6-7
57%
8-6
54%
7-6
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