Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / E Michigan @ Ohio EMU @ OHIO

EASTERN MICHIGAN

E MICHIGANEMU

4-5  |  Road

20
FINAL
Sat, Oct 24 • 4:00 PM ET
Peden Stadium
View Odds Details →

OHIO

OHIOOHIO

6-2  |  Home

24
Key Game
Daniel Hull
KEY GAME

Daniel Hull

#39 | Punter
@
Magnus Haines
KEY GAME

Magnus Haines

#42 | Punter
Player
Daniel Hull None-None
Magnus Haines None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
E MICHIGAN
21%
📊
OHIO
79%
E MICHIGAN 22% Book Odds: +364
OHIO 82% Book Odds: -442
Book Implied: 21.60% / 81.50%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
53.0
Projected
Book Total
49.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +3.5 (Over)
Over 49.5 61%
Under 49.5 39%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-14.0
OHIO
Book Spread
-12
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Ohio)
E MichiganEMU (+12) 0 OhioOHIO (-12)
Ohio Bobcats (-12) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

E Michigan Cover

15.9%

Ohio Cover

84.1%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around OHIO -14.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (OHIO)

EMU By 1-6 points

7.9%

EMU By 7-13 points

4.7%

OHIO By 1-6 points

12.9%

OHIO By 7-13 points

19.0%

AI Model Projected Score
19.5
EASTERN MICHIGAN
Book Implied: 18.80
33.5
OHIO
Book Implied: 30.80
Simulated Score
18
EASTERN MICHIGAN
Book Implied: 18.80
30
OHIO
Book Implied: 30.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Ohio Win
79% Win Prob
A
Sim Ohio Win
88% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Ohio (-12) Loss
Proj Spread: -14.0
B
Sim E Michigan (+12) Win
Proj Spread: +12.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI o49.5 Loss
Proj Total: 53.0
B
Sim u49.5 Win
Proj Total: 48.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 24, 2026 EMU @ OHIO 20 - 24
Oct 25, 2025 OHIO @ EMU 28 - 21
Nov 13, 2024 EMU @ OHIO 10 - 35
Nov 9, 2021 OHIO @ EMU 34 - 26
Sep 23, 2017 OHIO @ EMU 27 - 20
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +127.8% more
Ohio: 236.1 vs Eastern Michigan: 103.6
Total Yards (L5) +19.0% more
Ohio: 403.9 vs Eastern Michigan: 339.4
Turnovers (L5) +25.7% more
Eastern Michigan: 1.5 vs Ohio: 1.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
EMU Score 19.5 20
OHIO Score 33.5 24
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 23.6 / 22.0 17.0 / 18.0
Rushing Yards 236.1 / 103.6 90.0 / 110.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.5 0.27 / 0.13
Time of Possession 0.6 / 0.5 0.46 / 0.54
Total Yards 403.9 / 339.4 356.0 / 307.0
Turnovers 1.1 / 1.5 2.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +285 / -360 → +364 / -442 ↑
2%TICKETS98%
53%MONEY47%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +9.5 / -9.5 → +12 / -12 ↑
53%TICKETS47%
68%MONEY32%
Total (O/U)
Open: 49.5 → 49.5
58%TICKETS42%
48%MONEY52%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
EMU
4-6-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -6.7 ATS +/-: -4.0
OHIO Advantage
7-2-0 (77.8%)
Margin: 7.8 ATS +/-: +2.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
EMU
4-6-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -6.7 ATS +/-: -4.0
OHIO Advantage
4-5-0 (44.4%)
Margin: 7.8 ATS +/-: +2.1
⚖️ Over/Under
EMU
2-8-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: -3.4
OHIO
4-5-0
O: 44.4% / U: 55.6% Total +/-: +1.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
OHIO
EMU
OHIO
EMU
ML
88% 7-1
60% 6-4
100% 9-0
50% 5-5
ATS
25% 2-6
50% 5-5
44% 4-5
50% 5-5
TTL
50% 4-4
50% 5-5
78% 7-2
50% 5-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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