Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Pitt @ Miami PITT @ MIA

PITTSBURGH

PITTPITT

5-3  |  Road

23
FINAL
Sat, Oct 24 • 12:00 PM ET
Hard Rock Stadium
View Odds Details →

MIAMI

MIAMIMIA

7-0  |  Home

52
Key Game
Gabe Russo
KEY GAME

Gabe Russo

#98 | Punter
@
Dylan Joyce
KEY GAME

Dylan Joyce

#94 | Punter
Player
Gabe Russo None-None
Dylan Joyce None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
PITT
12%
📊
MIAMI
88%
▲ Edge: +3.10% (PITT)
PITT 9% Book Odds: +1039
MIAMI 94% Book Odds: -1602
Book Implied: 8.80% / 94.10%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
56.6
Projected
Book Total
51.0
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +5.6 (Over)
Over 51.0 64%
Under 51.0 36%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-21.0
MIAMI
Book Spread
-20.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 points (Miami)
PittPITT (+20.5) 0 MiamiMIA (-20.5)
Miami Hurricanes (-20.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Pitt Cover

6.7%

Miami Cover

93.3%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around MIA -21.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIA)

PITT By 1-6 points

3.8%

PITT By 7-13 points

1.8%

MIA By 1-6 points

7.9%

MIA By 7-13 points

14.6%

AI Model Projected Score
17.8
PITTSBURGH
Book Implied: 15.20
38.8
MIAMI
Book Implied: 35.80
Simulated Score
13
PITTSBURGH
Book Implied: 15.20
41
MIAMI
Book Implied: 35.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Miami Win
88% Win Prob
A
Sim Miami Win
100% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Miami (-20.5) Win
Proj Spread: -21.0
D
Sim Miami (-20.5) Win
Proj Spread: -28.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI o51.0 Win
Proj Total: 56.6
B
Sim o51.0 Win
Proj Total: 54.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 24, 2026 PITT @ MIA 23 - 52
Nov 29, 2025 MIA @ PITT 38 - 7
Nov 26, 2022 PITT @ MIA 42 - 16
Oct 30, 2021 MIA @ PITT 38 - 34
Oct 17, 2020 PITT @ MIA 19 - 31
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +32.3% more
Miami: 219.5 vs Pittsburgh: 165.9
Total Yards (L5) +29.5% more
Miami: 530.1 vs Pittsburgh: 409.2
First Downs (L5) +18.7% more
Miami: 27.1 vs Pittsburgh: 22.8
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +14.0% more
Miami: 0.5 vs Pittsburgh: 0.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
PITT Score 17.8 23
MIA Score 38.8 52
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 27.1 / 22.8 25.0 / 18.0
Rushing Yards 219.5 / 165.9 119.0 / 69.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.4 0.67 / 0.33
Time of Possession 0.6 / 0.5 0.61 / 0.39
Total Yards 530.1 / 409.2 506.0 / 403.0
Turnovers 0.6 / 1.8 0.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +1300 / -2778 → +1039 / -1602 ↓
3%TICKETS97%
6%MONEY94%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +23.5 / -23.5 → +20.5 / -20.5 ↓
50%TICKETS50%
45%MONEY55%
Total (O/U)
Open: 53.5 → 51 ↓
45%TICKETS55%
42%MONEY58%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PITT
6-3-0 (66.7%)
Margin: 12.1 ATS +/-: +2.5
MIA Advantage
8-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 29.9 ATS +/-: +3.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PITT
5-4-0 (55.6%)
Margin: 12.1 ATS +/-: +2.5
MIA Advantage
5-3-0 (62.5%)
Margin: 29.9 ATS +/-: +3.2
⚖️ Over/Under
PITT
4-5-0
O: 44.4% / U: 55.6% Total +/-: -0.2
MIA
7-1-0
O: 87.5% / U: 12.5% Total +/-: +11.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIA
PITT
MIA
PITT
ML
100% 8-0
78% 7-2
100% 8-0
56% 5-4
ATS
50% 4-4
56% 5-4
38% 3-5
22% 2-7
TTL
62% 5-3
44% 4-5
75% 6-2
67% 6-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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