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NC STATE

NC STATENCSU

3-4  |  Road

28
FINAL
Fri, Oct 23 • 10:30 PM ET
Stanford Stadium
View Odds Details →

STANFORD

STANFORDSTAN

4-4  |  Home

31
Key Game
Ke'Von Carter
KEY GAME

Ke'Von Carter

#42 | Linebacker
@
Aidan Flintoft
KEY GAME

Aidan Flintoft

#37 | Punter
Player
Ke'Von Carter None-None
Aidan Flintoft None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
NC STATE
59%
📊
STANFORD
41%
▲ Edge: +12.80% (STAN)
NC STATE 74% Book Odds: -288
STANFORD 29% Book Odds: +249
Book Implied: 74.20% / 28.70%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
54.5
Projected
Book Total
54.5
Over / Under Line
Over 54.5 50%
Under 54.5 50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+3.5
STANFORD
Book Spread
+7.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.0 points (Stanford)
NC StateNCSU (-7.5) 0 StanfordSTAN (+7.5)
Stanford Cardinal (+7.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

NC State Cover

40.1%

Stanford Cover

59.9%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around STAN +3.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (STAN)

NCSU By 1-6 points

17.0%

NCSU By 7-13 points

17.8%

STAN By 1-6 points

15.0%

STAN By 7-13 points

12.5%

AI Model Projected Score
29
NC STATE
Book Implied: 31
25.5
STANFORD
Book Implied: 23.50
Simulated Score
33
NC STATE
Book Implied: 31
24
STANFORD
Book Implied: 23.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI NC State Loss
59% Win Prob
C
Sim NC State Loss
81% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Stanford (+7.5) Win
Proj Spread: +3.5
B
Sim NC State (-7.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -9.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u54.5 Loss
Proj Total: 54.5
D
Sim o54.5 Win
Proj Total: 57.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 23, 2026 NCSU @ STAN 28 - 31
Nov 2, 2024 STAN @ NCSU 28 - 59
Key Model Drivers
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +18.0% more
NC State: 0.5 vs Stanford: 0.3
First Downs (L5) +16.8% more
NC State: 22.1 vs Stanford: 18.4
Total Yards (L5) +13.2% more
NC State: 401.6 vs Stanford: 348.5
Turnovers (L5) +17.9% more
Stanford: 1.3 vs NC State: 1.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NCSU Score 29.0 28
STAN Score 25.5 31
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 18.4 / 22.1 27.0 / 21.0
Rushing Yards 118.3 / 124.8 174.0 / 125.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.5 0.38 / 0.57
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.6 0.5 / 0.5
Total Yards 348.5 / 401.6 477.0 / 381.0
Turnovers 1.3 / 1.1 0.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -278 / +225 → -288 / +249 ↓
92%TICKETS8%
82%MONEY18%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -7.5 / +7.5 → -7.5 / +7.5
64%TICKETS36%
54%MONEY46%
Total (O/U)
Open: 55.5 → 54.5 ↓
23%TICKETS77%
25%MONEY75%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NCSU Advantage
4-4-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 6.3 ATS +/-: +0.3
STAN
4-5-0 (44.4%)
Margin: -17.0 ATS +/-: -7.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NCSU Advantage
3-5-0 (37.5%)
Margin: 6.3 ATS +/-: +0.3
STAN
3-6-0 (33.3%)
Margin: -17.0 ATS +/-: -7.7
⚖️ Over/Under
NCSU
5-3-0
O: 62.5% / U: 37.5% Total +/-: +3.9
STAN
7-2-0
O: 77.8% / U: 22.2% Total +/-: +4.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
STAN
NCSU
STAN
NCSU
ML
78% 7-2
62% 5-3
78% 7-2
75% 6-2
ATS
56% 5-4
75% 6-2
56% 5-4
62% 5-3
TTL
22% 2-7
50% 4-4
67% 6-3
62% 5-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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