Home / NHL Projections NHL / Senators @ Devils OTT @ NJ

OTTAWA

SENATORSOTT

5-1-0  |  Road

4
FINAL
Mon, Oct 12 • 7:00 PM ET
Prudential Center
View Odds Details →

NEW JERSEY

DEVILSNJ

2-3-0  |  Home

1
Goaltending
Linus Ullmark
GOALTENDER

Linus Ullmark

#35 | Goaltender
@
Jonas Siegenthaler
GOALTENDER

Jonas Siegenthaler

#71 | Defense
Player W-L-OTL GAA SV% SO
Linus Ullmark None-None 1.00 0.967 --
Jonas Siegenthaler None-None -- -- --
None-None W-L-OTL None-None
1.00 GAA --
0.967 Save % --
-- SO --
AI Model Win Probability
SENATORS
47%
📊
DEVILS
53%
SENATORS 49% Book Odds: +104
DEVILS 54% Book Odds: -115
Book Implied: 49% / 53.50%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.0
Projected
Book Total
6.0
Over / Under Line
Over 6.0 49%
Under 6.0 51%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.6
NEW JERSEY
Book Spread
-1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (New Jersey)
SenatorsOTT (+1.5) 0 DevilsNJ (-1.5)
New Jersey Devils (-1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Senators Cover

21.2%

Devils Cover

78.8%

+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around NJ -1.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NJ)

OTT By 1 goal

8.6%

OTT By 2-3 goals

5.5%

NJ By 1 goal

18.9%

NJ By 2-3 goals

34.9%

AI Model Projected Score
2.2
OTTAWA
Book Implied: 2.20
3.8
NEW JERSEY
Book Implied: 3.80
Simulated Score
4
OTTAWA
Book Implied: 2.20
3
NEW JERSEY
Book Implied: 3.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Devils Loss
53% Win Prob
D
Sim Senators Win
70% Win Prob
A
Puck Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Devils (-1.5) Loss
Proj Goals: -1.6
D
Sim Senators (+1.5) Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u6.0 Win
Proj Total: 6.0
D
Sim o6.0 Loss
Proj Total: 7.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 12, 2026 OTT @ NJ 4 - 1
Apr 12, 2026 OTT @ NJ 3 - 4
Jan 31, 2026 NJ @ OTT 1 - 4
Dec 9, 2025 NJ @ OTT 4 - 3
Sep 28, 2025 NJ @ OTT 0 - 2
Key Model Drivers
Shots on Goal (L5) +57.4% more
New Jersey: 38.2 vs Ottawa: 24.3
Power Play % (L5) +16.5%
New Jersey: 29.4% vs Ottawa: 13.0%
Blocked Shots (L5) +42.7% more
Ottawa: 16.8 vs New Jersey: 9.6
Hits (L5) +38.7% more
Ottawa: 26.5 vs New Jersey: 16.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
OTT Score 2.2 4
NJ Score 3.8 1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots 9.6 / 16.8 13.0 / 30.0
Faceoff % 50.5 / 53.8 47.3 / 52.7
Hits 16.3 / 26.5 11.0 / 21.0
Power Play % 29.4 / 13.0 0.0 / 20.0
Shots on Goal 38.2 / 24.3 30.0 / 20.0
Takeaways 4.2 / 4.8 4.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +110 / -130 → +104 / -115 ↓
36%TICKETS64%
87%MONEY13%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5 → +1.5 / -1.5
66%TICKETS34%
49%MONEY51%
Total (O/U)
Open: 5.5 → 6 ↑
92%TICKETS8%
93%MONEY7%
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NJ
OTT
NJ
OTT
ML
50% 7-7
43% 6-8
57% 8-6
50% 7-7
ATS
50% 7-7
29% 4-10
50% 7-7
64% 9-5
TTL
33% 4-8-2
50% 7-7
50% 6-6-2
57% 8-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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