Home / NFL Projections NFL / Jets @ Patriots NYJ @ NE

NEW YORK

JETSNYJ

2-4  |  Road

19
FINAL
Sun, Oct 18 • 1:00 PM ET
Gillette Stadium
View Odds Details →

NEW ENGLAND

PATRIOTSNE

4-2  |  Home

26
Key Game
Austin McNamara
KEY GAME

Austin McNamara

#14 | Punter
@
Mitch Wishnowsky
KEY GAME

Mitch Wishnowsky

#19 | Punter
Player
Austin McNamara None-None
Mitch Wishnowsky None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
JETS
22%
📊
PATRIOTS
78%
▲ Edge: +1.40% (NE)
JETS 26% Book Odds: +287
PATRIOTS 77% Book Odds: -337
Book Implied: 25.80% / 77.10%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
34.5
Projected
Book Total
42.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +8.0 (Under)
Over 42.5 27%
Under 42.5 73%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.5
NEW ENGLAND
Book Spread
-7.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (New England)
JetsNYJ (+7.5) 0 PatriotsNE (-7.5)
New England Patriots (-7.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Jets Cover

22.7%

Patriots Cover

77.3%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around NE -10.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NE)

NYJ By 1-6 points

10.4%

NYJ By 7-13 points

6.9%

NE By 1-6 points

15.0%

NE By 7-13 points

19.7%

AI Model Projected Score
12
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 17.50
22.5
NEW ENGLAND
Book Implied: 25
Simulated Score
16
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 17.50
26
NEW ENGLAND
Book Implied: 25
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Patriots Win
78% Win Prob
A
Sim Patriots Win
84% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Patriots (-7.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -10.5
B
Sim Patriots (-7.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -10.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI u42.5 Loss
Proj Total: 34.5
A
Sim u42.5 Loss
Proj Total: 42.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 18, 2026 NYJ @ NE 19 - 26
Dec 28, 2025 NE @ NYJ 42 - 10
Nov 13, 2025 NYJ @ NE 14 - 27
Oct 27, 2024 NYJ @ NE 22 - 25
Sep 19, 2024 NE @ NYJ 3 - 24
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +70.2% more
New England: 1.8 vs New York: 1.0
Net Passing Yards (L5) +68.7% more
New England: 273.3 vs New York: 162.0
Total Yards (L5) +59.8% more
New England: 411.9 vs New York: 257.8
First Downs (L5) +57.3% more
New England: 23.2 vs New York: 14.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NYJ Score 12.0 19
NE Score 22.5 26
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 23.2 / 14.7 22.0 / 21.0
Net Passing Yards 273.3 / 162.0 235.0 / 227.0
Rushing Yards 138.6 / 95.8 148.0 / 97.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.3 0.53 / 0.3
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.5 / 0.5
Total Yards 411.9 / 257.8 383.0 / 324.0
Turnovers 1.8 / 1.0 2.0 / 1.0
Yards Per Play 6.4 / 4.6 5.6 / 5.4
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +350 / -455 → +287 / -337 ↓
4%TICKETS96%
3%MONEY97%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +9.5 / -9.5 → +7.5 / -7.5 ↓
26%TICKETS74%
12%MONEY88%
Total (O/U)
Open: 42.5 → 42.5
67%TICKETS33%
68%MONEY32%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NYJ
2-5-0 (28.6%)
Margin: -1.9 ATS +/-: +0.6
NE Advantage
4-3-0 (57.1%)
Margin: 2.4 ATS +/-: +2.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NYJ Advantage
4-2-1 (66.7%)
Margin: -1.9 ATS +/-: +0.6
NE
3-3-1 (50.0%)
Margin: 2.4 ATS +/-: +2.5
⚖️ Over/Under
NYJ
3-4-0
O: 42.9% / U: 57.1% Total +/-: -1.5
NE
4-3-0
O: 57.1% / U: 42.9% Total +/-: -2.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NE
NYJ
NE
NYJ
ML
86% 6-1
71% 5-2
86% 6-1
71% 5-2
ATS
33% 2-4-1
50% 3-3-1
33% 2-4-1
50% 3-3-1
TTL
14% 1-6
29% 2-5
29% 2-5
29% 2-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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