Home / NFL Projections NFL / Seahawks @ Broncos SEA @ DEN

SEATTLE

SEAHAWKSSEA

3-3  |  Road

14
FINAL
Thu, Oct 15 • 8:15 PM ET
Empower Field at Mile High
View Odds Details →

DENVER

BRONCOSDEN

4-2  |  Home

17
Key Game
Michael Dickson
KEY GAME

Michael Dickson

#4 | Punter
@
Wil Lutz
KEY GAME

Wil Lutz

#3 | Place kicker
Player
Michael Dickson None-None
Wil Lutz None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
SEAHAWKS
55%
📊
BRONCOS
45%
▲ Edge: +1.60% (DEN)
SEAHAWKS 59% Book Odds: -141
BRONCOS 44% Book Odds: +128
Book Implied: 58.50% / 43.90%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
41.0
Projected
Book Total
40.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 (Over)
Over 40.5 52%
Under 40.5 48%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+2.0
DENVER
Book Spread
+2.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 points (Denver)
SeahawksSEA (-2.5) 0 BroncosDEN (+2.5)
Denver Broncos (+2.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Seahawks Cover

44.3%

Broncos Cover

55.7%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around DEN +2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DEN)

SEA By 1-6 points

16.9%

SEA By 7-13 points

16.8%

DEN By 1-6 points

15.7%

DEN By 7-13 points

13.8%

AI Model Projected Score
21.5
SEATTLE
Book Implied: 21.50
19.5
DENVER
Book Implied: 19
Simulated Score
20
SEATTLE
Book Implied: 21.50
23
DENVER
Book Implied: 19
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Seahawks Loss
55% Win Prob
D
Sim Broncos Win
61% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Broncos (+2.5) Win
Proj Spread: +2.0
D
Sim Broncos (+2.5) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o40.5 Loss
Proj Total: 41.0
D
Sim o40.5 Loss
Proj Total: 43.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 15, 2026 SEA @ DEN 14 - 17
Sep 8, 2024 DEN @ SEA 20 - 26
Sep 12, 2022 DEN @ SEA 16 - 17
Sep 9, 2018 SEA @ DEN 24 - 27
Sep 21, 2014 DEN @ SEA 20 - 26
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +54.6% more
Seattle: 2.3 vs Denver: 1.0
Yards Per Play (L5) +11.2% more
Seattle: 5.2 vs Denver: 4.6
Net Passing Yards (L5) +11.1% more
Seattle: 208.9 vs Denver: 185.7
Total Yards (L5) +10.5% more
Seattle: 311.5 vs Denver: 278.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SEA Score 21.5 14
DEN Score 19.5 17
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 18.0 / 18.5 13.0 / 24.0
Net Passing Yards 185.7 / 208.9 94.0 / 240.0
Rushing Yards 93.0 / 102.6 74.0 / 113.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.3 0.21 / 0.41
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.45 / 0.55
Total Yards 278.7 / 311.5 168.0 / 353.0
Turnovers 1.0 / 2.3 0.0 / 3.0
Yards Per Play 4.6 / 5.2 2.9 / 4.3
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -130 / +110 → -141 / +128 ↓
78%TICKETS22%
79%MONEY21%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -2.5 / +2.5 → -2.5 / +2.5
59%TICKETS41%
62%MONEY38%
Total (O/U)
Open: 43.5 → 40.5 ↓
82%TICKETS18%
76%MONEY24%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SEA
4-3-0 (57.1%)
Margin: 6.1 ATS +/-: +1.6
DEN Advantage
5-2-0 (71.4%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-: -0.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SEA
2-3-2 (40.0%)
Margin: 6.1 ATS +/-: +1.6
DEN Advantage
5-2-0 (71.4%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-: -0.1
⚖️ Over/Under
SEA
3-4-0
O: 42.9% / U: 57.1% Total +/-: -1.1
DEN
2-5-0
O: 28.6% / U: 71.4% Total +/-: -3.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DEN
SEA
DEN
SEA
ML
57% 4-3
57% 4-3
57% 4-3
57% 4-3
ATS
86% 6-1
60% 3-2-2
43% 3-4
40% 2-3-2
TTL
57% 4-3
14% 1-6
43% 3-4
71% 5-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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