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NEW YORK

ISLANDERSNYI

1-2-0  |  Road

2
FINAL
Tue, Oct 6 • 7:30 PM ET
Madison Square Garden
View Odds Details →

NEW YORK

RANGERSNYR

4-1-0  |  Home

5
Goaltending
Semyon Varlamov
GOALTENDER

Semyon Varlamov

#40 | Goaltender
@
Igor Shesterkin
GOALTENDER

Igor Shesterkin

#31 | Goaltender
Player W-L-OTL GAA SV% SO
Semyon Varlamov None-None 3.03 0.864 --
Igor Shesterkin None-None 2.00 0.895 --
None-None W-L-OTL None-None
3.03 GAA Ldr 2.00
0.864 Save % Ldr 0.895
-- SO --
AI Model Win Probability
ISLANDERS
38%
📊
RANGERS
62%
▲ Edge: +0.40% (NYR)
ISLANDERS 42% Book Odds: +136
RANGERS 62% Book Odds: -162
Book Implied: 42.40% / 61.80%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.0
Projected
Book Total
5.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 (Over)
Over 5.5 59%
Under 5.5 41%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.6
NEW YORK
Book Spread
-1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (New York)
IslandersNYI (+1.5) 0 RangersNYR (-1.5)
New York Rangers (-1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Islanders Cover

21.2%

Rangers Cover

78.8%

+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around NYR -1.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYR)

NYI By 1 goal

8.6%

NYI By 2-3 goals

5.5%

NYR By 1 goal

18.9%

NYR By 2-3 goals

34.9%

AI Model Projected Score
2.2
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 2
3.8
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 3.50
Simulated Score
2
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 2
4
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 3.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Rangers Win
62% Win Prob
C
Sim Rangers Win
84% Win Prob
A
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Rangers (-1.5) Win
Proj Goals: -1.6
D
Sim Rangers (-1.5) Win
Proj Goals: -2.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI o5.5 Win
Proj Total: 6.0
B
Sim o5.5 Win
Proj Total: 6.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 6, 2026 NYI @ NYR 2 - 5
Jan 29, 2026 NYI @ NYR 2 - 1
Jan 28, 2026 NYR @ NYI 2 - 5
Dec 27, 2025 NYR @ NYI 0 - 2
Nov 8, 2025 NYI @ NYR 5 - 0
Key Model Drivers
Blocked Shots (L5) +46.0% more
New York: 17.5 vs New York: 12.0
Hits (L5) +17.4% more
New York: 25.2 vs New York: 21.5
Faceoff % (L5) +6.2%
New York: 51.9% vs New York: 45.7%
Power Play % (L5) +1.9%
New York: 13.0% vs New York: 11.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NYI Score 2.2 2
NYR Score 3.8 5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots 17.5 / 12.0 14.0 / 14.0
Faceoff % 51.9 / 45.7 50.0 / 50.0
Hits 25.2 / 21.5 27.0 / 18.0
Power Play % 13.0 / 11.1 33.3 / 25.0
Shots on Goal 22.8 / 28.7 24.0 / 19.0
Takeaways 3.9 / 5.6 6.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +110 / -130 → +136 / -162 ↑
12%TICKETS88%
8%MONEY92%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5 → +1.5 / -1.5
53%TICKETS47%
46%MONEY54%
Total (O/U)
Open: 5.5 → 5.5
78%TICKETS22%
86%MONEY14%
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYR
NYI
NYR
NYI
ML
80% 4-1
67% 2-1
40% 2-3
67% 2-1
ATS
80% 4-1
33% 1-2
60% 3-2
33% 1-2
TTL
60% 3-2
100% 2-0-1
60% 3-2
100% 2-0-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Islanders Shuffle Defense Pairings in Wake of Romanov's ACL Tear
si 6 hours, 7 minutes ago
Islanders' Blue Line Shake-Up: Three Defenders Who Must Elevate …
si 12 hours, 7 minutes ago
Islanders Lock Up Czech Blueliner Vladimir Dravecky with Three-Y…
si 1 day, 6 hours ago
Rangers' Shesterkin and Fox Shine in ESPN Top 100 Despite Rankin…
si 1 day, 12 hours ago
Islanders Defy Doubters with Four Stars on ESPN Top 100 List
si 1 day, 12 hours ago