Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Elon @ Stanford ELON @ STAN

ELON

ELONELON

4-4  |  Road

7
FINAL
Sat, Oct 17 • 7:30 PM ET
Stanford Stadium
View Odds Details →

STANFORD

STANFORDSTAN

3-4  |  Home

34
Key Game
Carter Stimson
KEY GAME

Carter Stimson

#97 | Punter
@
Aidan Flintoft
KEY GAME

Aidan Flintoft

#37 | Punter
Player
Carter Stimson None-None
Aidan Flintoft None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
ELON
7%
📊
STANFORD
93%
ELON --
STANFORD --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
58.5
Projected
Book Total
55.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 (Over)
Over 55.5 56%
Under 55.5 44%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+27.5
ELON
Book Spread
+34.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (Elon)
ElonELON (+34.5) 0 StanfordSTAN (-34.5)
Elon Phoenix (+34.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Elon Cover

97.5%

Stanford Cover

2.5%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around ELON +27.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ELON)

ELON By 1-6 points

1.5%

ELON By 7-13 points

0.6%

STAN By 1-6 points

4.0%

STAN By 7-13 points

9.2%

AI Model Projected Score
15.5
ELON
Book Implied: 10.50
43
STANFORD
Book Implied: 45
Simulated Score
16
ELON
Book Implied: 10.50
33
STANFORD
Book Implied: 45
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Stanford Win
93% Win Prob
A
Sim Stanford Win
95% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Elon (+34.5) Win
Proj Spread: +27.5
A
Sim Elon (+34.5) Win
Proj Spread: +17.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI o55.5 Loss
Proj Total: 58.5
C
Sim u55.5 Win
Proj Total: 49.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 17, 2026 ELON @ STAN 7 - 34
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +79.0% more
Stanford: 1.5 vs Elon: 0.7
Rushing Yards (L5) +40.4% more
Elon: 111.6 vs Stanford: 66.5
Time of Possession (L5) +10.0% more
Elon: 0.5 vs Stanford: 0.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ELON Score 15.5 7
STAN Score 43.0 34
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 14.0 / 13.9 27.0 / 15.0
Rushing Yards 66.5 / 111.6 222.0 / 220.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.3 0.42 / 0.21
Time of Possession 0.4 / 0.5 0.55 / 0.45
Total Yards 265.2 / 257.9 515.0 / 272.0
Turnovers 1.5 / 0.7 1.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +3000 / -10000 → -- / --
2%TICKETS98%
0%MONEY100%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +35.5 / -35.5 → +34.5 / -34.5 ↓
46%TICKETS54%
81%MONEY19%
Total (O/U)
Open: 56.5 → 55.5 ↓
29%TICKETS71%
47%MONEY53%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ELON
--
STAN Advantage
4-5-0 (44.4%)
Margin: -17.0 ATS +/-: -7.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ELON
--
STAN Advantage
3-6-0 (33.3%)
Margin: -17.0 ATS +/-: -7.7
⚖️ Over/Under
ELON
--
STAN
7-2-0
O: 77.8% / U: 22.2% Total +/-: +4.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
STAN
ELON
STAN
ELON
ML
78% 7-2
100% 1-0
78% 7-2
100% 1-0
ATS
56% 5-4
100% 1-0
56% 5-4
100% 1-0
TTL
22% 2-7
0% 0-1
67% 6-3
100% 1-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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