Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Arkansas St @ Southern Miss ARST @ USM

ARKANSAS STATE

ARKANSAS STARST

3-4  |  Road

23
FINAL
Sat, Oct 17 • 7:00 PM ET
M. M. Roberts Stadium
View Odds Details →

SOUTHERN MISS

SOUTHERN MISSUSM

1-5  |  Home

13
Key Game
Reed Linder
KEY GAME

Reed Linder

#84 | Wide Receiver
@
Jameer Lewis
KEY GAME

Jameer Lewis

#9 | Defensive Lineman
Player
Reed Linder None-None
Jameer Lewis None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
ARKANSAS ST
38%
📊
SOUTHERN MISS
62%
▲ Edge: +26.40% (USM)
ARKANSAS ST 68% Book Odds: -208
SOUTHERN MISS 36% Book Odds: +180
Book Implied: 67.50% / 35.70%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
52.6
Projected
Book Total
61.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +8.9 (Under)
Over 61.5 31%
Under 61.5 69%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.0
SOUTHERN MISS
Book Spread
+5.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.5 points (Southern Miss)
Arkansas StARST (-5.5) 0 Southern MissUSM (+5.5)
Southern Miss Golden Eagles (+5.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Arkansas St Cover

36.0%

Southern Miss Cover

64.0%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around USM -5.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (USM)

ARST By 1-6 points

14.2%

ARST By 7-13 points

11.3%

USM By 1-6 points

16.9%

USM By 7-13 points

18.5%

AI Model Projected Score
23.8
ARKANSAS STATE
Book Implied: 33.50
28.8
SOUTHERN MISS
Book Implied: 28
Simulated Score
20
ARKANSAS STATE
Book Implied: 33.50
33
SOUTHERN MISS
Book Implied: 28
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Southern Miss Loss
62% Win Prob
C
Sim Southern Miss Loss
90% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Southern Miss (+5.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
A
Sim Southern Miss (+5.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -13.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI u61.5 Win
Proj Total: 52.6
A
Sim u61.5 Win
Proj Total: 53.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 17, 2026 ARST @ USM 23 - 13
Nov 8, 2025 USM @ ARST 27 - 21
Oct 19, 2024 ARST @ USM 44 - 28
Sep 23, 2023 USM @ ARST 37 - 44
Oct 15, 2022 ARST @ USM 19 - 20
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +22.9% more
Southern Miss: 1.7 vs Arkansas State: 1.4
Rushing Yards (L5) +11.0% more
Southern Miss: 125.2 vs Arkansas State: 112.8
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +24.0% more
Arkansas State: 0.6 vs Southern Miss: 0.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ARST Score 23.8 23
USM Score 28.8 13
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 23.4 / 22.4 14.0 / 23.0
Rushing Yards 125.2 / 112.8 81.0 / 134.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.6 0.36 / 0.24
Time of Possession 0.4 / 0.5 0.33 / 0.67
Total Yards 427.6 / 396.1 289.0 / 304.0
Turnovers 1.7 / 1.4 2.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -264 / +218 → -208 / +180 ↑
94%TICKETS6%
69%MONEY31%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -7 / +7 → -5.5 / +5.5 ↑
33%TICKETS67%
38%MONEY62%
Total (O/U)
Open: 62.5 → 61.5 ↓
36%TICKETS64%
36%MONEY64%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ARST Advantage
4-4-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 1.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
USM
3-5-0 (37.5%)
Margin: -4.1 ATS +/-: +3.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ARST
4-4-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 1.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
USM
4-4-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -4.1 ATS +/-: +3.1
⚖️ Over/Under
ARST
4-4-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: 0.0
USM
5-3-0
O: 62.5% / U: 37.5% Total +/-: +3.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
USM
ARST
USM
ARST
ML
62% 5-3
57% 4-3
38% 3-5
75% 6-2
ATS
50% 4-4
71% 5-2
38% 3-5
62% 5-3
TTL
62% 5-3
29% 2-5
50% 4-4
38% 3-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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