Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Ohio @ Sacramento St OHIO @ SAC

OHIO

OHIOOHIO

5-2  |  Road

48
FINAL
Sat, Oct 17 • 10:00 PM ET
Hornet Stadium
View Odds Details →

SACRAMENTO STATE

SACRAMENTO STSAC

1-6  |  Home

7
Key Game
Magnus Haines
KEY GAME

Magnus Haines

#42 | Punter
@
Hamish Adams
KEY GAME

Hamish Adams

#37 | Punter
Player
Magnus Haines None-None
Hamish Adams None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
OHIO
72%
📊
SACRAMENTO ST
28%
▲ Edge: +13.50% (SAC)
OHIO 90% Book Odds: -901
SACRAMENTO ST 14% Book Odds: +600
Book Implied: 90% / 14.30%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
51.0
Projected
Book Total
46.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +4.5 (Over)
Over 46.5 61%
Under 46.5 39%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+10.0
SACRAMENTO STATE
Book Spread
+17.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.5 points (Sacramento State)
OhioOHIO (-17.5) 0 Sacramento StSAC (+17.5)
Sacramento State Hornets (+17.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Ohio Cover

23.8%

Sacramento St Cover

76.2%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around SAC +10.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SAC)

OHIO By 1-6 points

15.3%

OHIO By 7-13 points

19.7%

SAC By 1-6 points

10.7%

SAC By 7-13 points

7.3%

AI Model Projected Score
30.5
OHIO
Book Implied: 32
20.5
SACRAMENTO STATE
Book Implied: 14.50
Simulated Score
33
OHIO
Book Implied: 32
22
SACRAMENTO STATE
Book Implied: 14.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Ohio Win
72% Win Prob
A
Sim Ohio Win
87% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Sacramento St (+17.5) Loss
Proj Spread: +10.0
B
Sim Sacramento St (+17.5) Loss
Proj Spread: +11.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI o46.5 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
B
Sim o46.5 Win
Proj Total: 55.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 17, 2026 OHIO @ SAC 48 - 7
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +54.2% more
Ohio: 221.6 vs Sacramento State: 101.4
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +20.0% more
Ohio: 0.5 vs Sacramento State: 0.3
Total Yards (L5) +19.4% more
Ohio: 371.8 vs Sacramento State: 299.5
Turnovers (L5) +15.3% more
Sacramento State: 2.0 vs Ohio: 1.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
OHIO Score 30.5 48
SAC Score 20.5 7
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 18.9 / 20.4 13.0 / 30.0
Rushing Yards 101.4 / 221.6 127.0 / 265.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.5 0.25 / 0.5
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.45 / 0.55
Total Yards 299.5 / 371.8 267.0 / 468.0
Turnovers 2.0 / 1.7 1.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -535 / +381 → -901 / +600 ↓
99%TICKETS1%
80%MONEY20%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -13 / +13 → -17.5 / +17.5 ↓
51%TICKETS49%
54%MONEY46%
Total (O/U)
Open: 49 → 46.5 ↓
76%TICKETS24%
68%MONEY32%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
OHIO Advantage
6-2-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 7.8 ATS +/-: +2.9
SAC
2-7-0 (22.2%)
Margin: -13.3 ATS +/-: -5.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
OHIO Advantage
4-4-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 7.8 ATS +/-: +2.9
SAC
3-6-0 (33.3%)
Margin: -13.3 ATS +/-: -5.8
⚖️ Over/Under
OHIO
4-4-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +2.8
SAC
3-6-0
O: 33.3% / U: 66.7% Total +/-: -1.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SAC
OHIO
SAC
OHIO
ML
75% 6-2
86% 6-1
78% 7-2
100% 8-0
ATS
25% 2-6
29% 2-5
33% 3-6
38% 3-5
TTL
62% 5-3
43% 3-4
78% 7-2
88% 7-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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