Home / NHL Projections NHL / Mammoth @ Rangers UTA @ NYR

UTAH

MAMMOTHUTA

2-1-0  |  Road

2
FINAL
Sun, Oct 4 • 6:00 PM ET
Madison Square Garden
View Odds Details →

NEW YORK

RANGERSNYR

3-1-0  |  Home

4
Goaltending
Karel Vejmelka
GOALTENDER

Karel Vejmelka

#70 | Goaltender
@
Igor Shesterkin
GOALTENDER

Igor Shesterkin

#31 | Goaltender
Player W-L-OTL GAA SV% SO
Karel Vejmelka None-None 3.07 0.857 --
Igor Shesterkin None-None 2.00 0.933 --
None-None W-L-OTL None-None
3.07 GAA Ldr 2.00
0.857 Save % Ldr 0.933
-- SO --
AI Model Win Probability
MAMMOTH
41%
📊
RANGERS
59%
▲ Edge: +4.90% (NYR)
MAMMOTH 50% Book Odds: +100
RANGERS 55% Book Odds: -120
Book Implied: 50% / 54.50%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.5
Projected
Book Total
5.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 (Over)
Over 5.5 59%
Under 5.5 41%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.5
UTAH
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
MammothUTA (+1.5) 0 RangersNYR (-1.5)
Line aligns with book spread (+1.5)
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Mammoth Cover

77.3%

Rangers Cover

22.7%

+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around UTA +1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UTA)

UTA By 1 goal

9.2%

UTA By 2-3 goals

6.1%

NYR By 1 goal

19.1%

NYR By 2-3 goals

34.1%

AI Model Projected Score
2.5
UTAH
Book Implied: 2
4
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 3.50
Simulated Score
5
UTAH
Book Implied: 2
4
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 3.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Rangers Win
59% Win Prob
C
Sim Mammoth Loss
70% Win Prob
A
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Mammoth (-1.5) Win
Proj Goals: +1.5
D
Sim Mammoth (+1.5) Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI o5.5 Win
Proj Total: 6.5
B
Sim o5.5 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 4, 2026 UTA @ NYR 2 - 4
Jan 5, 2026 UTA @ NYR 3 - 2
Nov 22, 2025 NYR @ UTA 2 - 3
Jan 16, 2025 NYR @ UTA 5 - 3
Oct 12, 2024 UTA @ NYR 6 - 5
Key Model Drivers
Blocked Shots (L5) +16.7% more
New York: 14.8 vs Utah: 12.7
Power Play % (L5) +49.9%
Utah: 69.4% vs New York: 19.5%
Takeaways (L5) +32.6% more
Utah: 6.5 vs New York: 4.4
Shots on Goal (L5) +26.6% more
Utah: 31.7 vs New York: 23.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UTA Score 2.5 2
NYR Score 4.0 4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots 14.8 / 12.7 23.0 / 17.0
Faceoff % 50.7 / 62.9 54.2 / 45.8
Hits 26.3 / 32.3 23.0 / 29.0
Power Play % 19.5 / 69.4 0.0 / 50.0
Shots on Goal 23.2 / 31.7 22.0 / 30.0
Takeaways 4.4 / 6.5 3.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +114 / -135 → +100 / -120 ↓
24%TICKETS76%
43%MONEY57%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5 → +1.5 / -1.5
73%TICKETS27%
65%MONEY35%
Total (O/U)
Open: 5.5 → 5.5
91%TICKETS9%
93%MONEY7%
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYR
UTA
NYR
UTA
ML
80% 4-1
50% 2-2
40% 2-3
75% 3-1
ATS
80% 4-1
50% 2-2
60% 3-2
50% 2-2
TTL
60% 3-2
75% 3-1
60% 3-2
75% 3-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Islanders Shuffle Defense Pairings in Wake of Romanov's ACL Tear
si 7 hours, 36 minutes ago
Islanders' Blue Line Shake-Up: Three Defenders Who Must Elevate …
si 13 hours, 36 minutes ago
Islanders Lock Up Czech Blueliner Vladimir Dravecky with Three-Y…
si 1 day, 7 hours ago
Rangers' Shesterkin and Fox Shine in ESPN Top 100 Despite Rankin…
si 1 day, 13 hours ago
Islanders Defy Doubters with Four Stars on ESPN Top 100 List
si 1 day, 13 hours ago