Home / NHL Projections NHL / Lightning @ Rangers TB @ NYR

TAMPA BAY

LIGHTNINGTB

0-1-0  |  Road

1
FINAL
Thu, Oct 1 • 7:00 PM ET
Madison Square Garden
View Odds Details →

NEW YORK

RANGERSNYR

1-1-0  |  Home

5
Goaltending
Andrei Vasilevskiy
GOALTENDER

Andrei Vasilevskiy

#88 | Goaltender
@
Igor Shesterkin
GOALTENDER

Igor Shesterkin

#31 | Goaltender
Player W-L-OTL GAA SV% SO
Andrei Vasilevskiy None-None 4.30 0.833 --
Igor Shesterkin None-None 1.00 0.960 --
None-None W-L-OTL None-None
4.30 GAA Ldr 1.00
0.833 Save % Ldr 0.960
-- SO --
AI Model Win Probability
LIGHTNING
64%
📊
RANGERS
36%
▲ Edge: +3.90% (TB)
LIGHTNING 60% Book Odds: -148
RANGERS 45% Book Odds: +124
Book Implied: 59.70% / 44.60%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.5
Projected
Book Total
5.5
Over / Under Line
Over 5.5 50%
Under 5.5 50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.5
NEW YORK
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
LightningTB (-1.5) 0 RangersNYR (+1.5)
Line aligns with book spread (+1.5)
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Lightning Cover

22.7%

Rangers Cover

77.3%

-6-4-20+2+4+6
Distribution centered around NYR +1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYR)

TB By 1 goal

19.1%

TB By 2-3 goals

34.1%

NYR By 1 goal

9.2%

NYR By 2-3 goals

6.1%

AI Model Projected Score
3.5
TAMPA BAY
Book Implied: 3.50
2
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 2
Simulated Score
4
TAMPA BAY
Book Implied: 3.50
3
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 2
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Lightning Loss
64% Win Prob
B
Sim Lightning Loss
70% Win Prob
A
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Rangers (-1.5) Loss
Proj Goals: +1.5
D
Sim Rangers (+1.5) Win
Proj Goals: +1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u5.5 Loss
Proj Total: 5.5
D
Sim o5.5 Win
Proj Total: 7.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 1, 2026 TB @ NYR 1 - 5
Apr 15, 2026 NYR @ TB 4 - 2
Nov 29, 2025 TB @ NYR 4 - 1
Nov 12, 2025 NYR @ TB 7 - 3
Apr 17, 2025 TB @ NYR 0 - 4
Key Model Drivers
Power Play % (L5) +31.3%
Tampa Bay: 31.5% vs New York: 0.2%
Shots on Goal (L5) +27.8% more
Tampa Bay: 33.2 vs New York: 24.0
Takeaways (L5) +16.4% more
Tampa Bay: 5.0 vs New York: 4.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TB Score 3.5 1
NYR Score 2.0 5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots 12.0 / 12.9 23.0 / 16.0
Faceoff % 50.0 / 49.8 61.4 / 38.6
Hits 28.8 / 30.4 22.0 / 31.0
Power Play % 0.2 / 31.5 50.0 / 0.0
Shots on Goal 24.0 / 33.2 25.0 / 25.0
Takeaways 4.1 / 5.0 4.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +120 / +114 → -148 / +124 ↓
83%TICKETS17%
79%MONEY21%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5 → -1.5 / +1.5
47%TICKETS53%
81%MONEY19%
Total (O/U)
Open: 5.5 → 5.5
69%TICKETS31%
78%MONEY22%
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYR
TB
NYR
TB
ML
80% 4-1
67% 2-1
40% 2-3
67% 2-1
ATS
80% 4-1
67% 2-1
60% 3-2
33% 1-2
TTL
60% 3-2
67% 2-1
60% 3-2
100% 3-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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