Home / MLB Projections MLB / Mets @ Nationals NYM @ WSH

NEW YORK

METSNYM

74-88  |  Road

4
FINAL
Sun, Sep 27 • 1:05 PM ET
Nationals Park
View Odds Details →

WASHINGTON

NATIONALSWSH

77-85  |  Home

6
Probable Pitchers
Sean Manaea
STARTING PITCHER

Sean Manaea

#59 | Starting Pitcher
@
DJ Herz
STARTING PITCHER

DJ Herz

#77 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Sean Manaea 6-7 4.67 1.30 144.2 141
DJ Herz 0-1 9.00 1.75 4.0 4
6-7 W-L 0-1
4.67 Ldr ERA 9.00
1.30 Ldr WHIP 1.75
144.2 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 4.0
141 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 4
AI Model Win Probability
METS
61%
📊
NATIONALS
39%
▲ Edge: +8.10% (NYM)
METS 53% Book Odds: -112
NATIONALS 52% Book Odds: -108
Book Implied: 52.80% / 51.90%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.0
Projected
Book Total
8.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +1.5 (Over)
Over 8.5 68%
Under 8.5 32%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.6
NEW YORK
Book Spread
-1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (New York)
MetsNYM (-1.5) 0 NationalsWSH (+1.5)
New York Mets (-1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Mets Cover

65.5%

Nationals Cover

34.5%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around NYM -1.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYM)

NYM By 1-2 runs

19.7%

NYM By 3-4 runs

17.7%

WSH By 1-2 runs

14.7%

WSH By 3-4 runs

8.9%

AI Model Projected Score
5.8
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 5
4.2
WASHINGTON
Book Implied: 3.50
Simulated Score
5
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 5
4
WASHINGTON
Book Implied: 3.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Mets Loss
61% Win Prob
C
Sim Mets Loss
61% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Mets (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.6
D
Sim Nationals (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI o8.5 Win
Proj Total: 10.0
A
Sim o8.5 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 27, 2026 NYM @ WSH 4 - 6
Sep 26, 2026 NYM @ WSH 7 - 1
Sep 25, 2026 NYM @ WSH 6 - 7
Aug 16, 2026 WSH @ NYM 3 - 4
Aug 15, 2026 WSH @ NYM 4 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
New York NYM
vs
Washington WSH
162
Games Played
162
4.31
Runs / Game
▲ 5.07
.239
Avg (AVG)
▲ .246
.310
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .321
.395
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .423
.705
OPS
▲ .744
204
Home Runs
▲ 210
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +60.3% more
New York: 1.9 vs Washington: 0.8
Total Bases (L5) +40.5% more
New York: 15.5 vs Washington: 9.2
Walks (L5) +29.9% more
New York: 3.7 vs Washington: 2.6
Hits (L5) +22.7% more
New York: 8.3 vs Washington: 6.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NYM Score 5.8 4
WSH Score 4.2 6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.6 / 0.6 1.0 / 0.0
Hits 6.4 / 8.3 9.0 / 9.0
Home Runs 0.8 / 1.9 2.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 9.2 / 8.5 5.0 / 9.0
Total Bases 9.2 / 15.5 20.0 / 16.0
Walks 2.6 / 3.7 3.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -133 / +110 → -112 / -108 ↑
68%TICKETS32%
71%MONEY29%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5 → -1.5 / +1.5
73%TICKETS27%
81%MONEY19%
Total (O/U)
Open: 8.5 → 8.5
89%TICKETS11%
93%MONEY7%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NYM
74-88-0 (45.7%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
WSH Advantage
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NYM
(46.3%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
WSH Advantage
(56.2%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
NYM
77-73-12
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7% Total +/-: +0.7
WSH
85-69-8
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8% Total +/-: +1.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WSH
NYM
WSH
NYM
ML
57% 92-69
50% 79-80
54% 87-74
48% 76-83
ATS
58% 93-68
58% 93-66
57% 91-70
49% 78-81
TTL
50% 77-78-6
55% 80-66-13
42% 65-90-6
51% 74-72-13
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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