Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Navy @ Air Force NAVY @ AFA

NAVY

NAVYNAVY

1-3  |  Road

9
FINAL
Sat, Oct 3 • 12:00 PM ET
Falcon Stadium
View Odds Details →

AIR FORCE

AIR FORCEAFA

3-1  |  Home

14
Key Game
Lance Gossett
KEY GAME

Lance Gossett

#99 | Place kicker
@
Will Duncan
KEY GAME

Will Duncan

#94 | Punter
Player
Lance Gossett None-None
Will Duncan None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
NAVY
72%
📊
AIR FORCE
28%
▲ Edge: +27.60% (NAVY)
NAVY 45% Book Odds: +124
AIR FORCE 60% Book Odds: -148
Book Implied: 44.60% / 59.70%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
52.4
Projected
Book Total
45.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +6.9 (Over)
Over 45.5 65%
Under 45.5 35%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.0
NAVY
Book Spread
+3
Book Line
▲ Edge: +13.0 points (Navy)
NavyNAVY (+3) 0 Air ForceAFA (-3)
Navy Midshipmen (+3) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Navy Cover

76.2%

Air Force Cover

23.8%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around NAVY -10.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NAVY)

NAVY By 1-6 points

15.3%

NAVY By 7-13 points

19.7%

AFA By 1-6 points

10.7%

AFA By 7-13 points

7.3%

AI Model Projected Score
31.2
NAVY
Book Implied: 21.20
21.2
AIR FORCE
Book Implied: 24.20
Simulated Score
23
NAVY
Book Implied: 21.20
32
AIR FORCE
Book Implied: 24.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI Navy Loss
72% Win Prob
A
Sim Air Force Win
81% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI Navy (+3) Loss
Proj Spread: -10.0
A
Sim Air Force (-3) Win
Proj Spread: -9.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI o45.5 Loss
Proj Total: 52.4
A
Sim o45.5 Loss
Proj Total: 55.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 3, 2026 NAVY @ AFA 9 - 14
Oct 4, 2025 AFA @ NAVY 31 - 34
Oct 5, 2024 NAVY @ AFA 34 - 7
Oct 21, 2023 AFA @ NAVY 17 - 6
Oct 1, 2022 NAVY @ AFA 10 - 13
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +48.0% more
Navy: 1.5 vs Air Force: 0.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NAVY Score 31.2 9
AFA Score 21.2 14
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 22.9 / 22.5 17.0 / 11.0
Rushing Yards 305.2 / 294.7 188.0 / 110.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.5 0.5 / 0.09
Time of Possession 0.6 / 0.6 0.6 / 0.4
Total Yards 405.1 / 392.7 270.0 / 253.0
Turnovers 0.8 / 1.5 2.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +100 / -120 → +124 / -148 ↑
14%TICKETS86%
26%MONEY74%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5 → +3 / -3 ↑
46%TICKETS54%
40%MONEY60%
Total (O/U)
Open: 49.5 → 45.5 ↓
75%TICKETS25%
48%MONEY52%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NAVY
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: 2.5 ATS +/-: -7.8
AFA Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 9.0 ATS +/-: -0.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NAVY
0-4-0 (0.0%)
Margin: 2.5 ATS +/-: -7.8
AFA Advantage
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 9.0 ATS +/-: -0.5
⚖️ Over/Under
NAVY
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -3.5
AFA
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
AFA
NAVY
AFA
NAVY
ML
33% 1-2
25% 1-3
100% 4-0
100% 4-0
ATS
67% 2-1
50% 2-2
100% 4-0
100% 4-0
TTL
67% 2-1
0% 0-4
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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