Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Stanford @ Wake Forest STAN @ WAKE

STANFORD

STANFORDSTAN

2-3  |  Road

3
FINAL
Sat, Oct 3 • 12:00 PM ET
Allegacy Federal Credit Union Stadium
View Odds Details →

WAKE FOREST

WAKE FORESTWAKE

4-1  |  Home

57
Key Game
Aidan Flintoft
KEY GAME

Aidan Flintoft

#37 | Punter
@
Ethan Hyams
KEY GAME

Ethan Hyams

#45 | Punter
Player
Aidan Flintoft None-None
Ethan Hyams None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
STANFORD
20%
📊
WAKE FOREST
80%
▲ Edge: +2.70% (STAN)
STANFORD 18% Book Odds: +470
WAKE FOREST 87% Book Odds: -649
Book Implied: 17.50% / 86.60%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
57.5
Projected
Book Total
54.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 (Over)
Over 54.5 56%
Under 54.5 44%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+14.5
STANFORD
Book Spread
+14.5
Book Line
StanfordSTAN (+14.5) 0 Wake ForestWAKE (-14.5)
Line aligns with book spread (+14.5)
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Stanford Cover

85.0%

Wake Forest Cover

15.0%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around STAN +14.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (STAN)

STAN By 1-6 points

7.5%

STAN By 7-13 points

4.4%

WAKE By 1-6 points

12.5%

WAKE By 7-13 points

18.8%

AI Model Projected Score
21.5
STANFORD
Book Implied: 20
36
WAKE FOREST
Book Implied: 34.50
Simulated Score
18
STANFORD
Book Implied: 20
36
WAKE FOREST
Book Implied: 34.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Wake Forest Win
80% Win Prob
A
Sim Wake Forest Win
96% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Stanford (-14.5) Win
Proj Spread: +14.5
D
Sim Wake Forest (-14.5) Win
Proj Spread: -18.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI o54.5 Win
Proj Total: 57.5
C
Sim u54.5 Loss
Proj Total: 54.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 3, 2026 STAN @ WAKE 3 - 57
Oct 26, 2024 WAKE @ STAN 27 - 24
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +79.1% more
Wake Forest: 146.1 vs Stanford: 81.6
Turnovers (L5) +34.0% more
Wake Forest: 0.9 vs Stanford: 0.6
Total Yards (L5) +19.1% more
Wake Forest: 413.1 vs Stanford: 346.7
First Downs (L5) +14.5% more
Wake Forest: 21.0 vs Stanford: 18.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
STAN Score 21.5 3
WAKE Score 36.0 57
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 21.0 / 18.3 26.0 / 13.0
Rushing Yards 146.1 / 81.6 197.0 / 49.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.3 0.77 / 0.35
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.48 / 0.52
Total Yards 413.1 / 346.7 519.0 / 197.0
Turnovers 0.9 / 0.6 1.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +360 / -469 → +470 / -649 ↑
3%TICKETS97%
5%MONEY95%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +12.5 / -12.5 → +14.5 / -14.5 ↑
36%TICKETS64%
35%MONEY65%
Total (O/U)
Open: 54.5 → 54.5
35%TICKETS65%
38%MONEY62%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
STAN
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -20.8 ATS +/-: -11.4
WAKE Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 13.6 ATS +/-: +10.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
STAN
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -20.8 ATS +/-: -11.4
WAKE Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 13.6 ATS +/-: +10.9
⚖️ Over/Under
STAN
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +5.7
WAKE
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +5.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WAKE
STAN
WAKE
STAN
ML
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
ATS
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
TTL
80% 4-1
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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