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PHILADELPHIA

PHILLIESPHI

85-69  |  Road

3
FINAL
Fri, Sep 18 • 7:10 PM ET
Citi Field
View Odds Details →

NEW YORK

METSNYM

70-84  |  Home

6
Probable Pitchers
Tim Mayza
STARTING PITCHER

Tim Mayza

#37 | Relief Pitcher
@
👤
STARTING PITCHER

Zac Thornton

#49 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Tim Mayza 3-3 3.06 1.05 64.2 63
Zac Thornton 4-5 3.44 1.16 73.1 55
3-3 W-L 4-5
3.06 Ldr ERA 3.44
1.05 Ldr WHIP 1.16
64.2 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 73.1
63 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 55
AI Model Win Probability
PHILLIES
29%
📊
METS
71%
▲ Edge: +14% (NYM)
PHILLIES 48% Book Odds: +108
METS 57% Book Odds: -131
Book Implied: 48.10% / 56.70%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
8.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 (Over)
Over 8.5 56%
Under 8.5 44%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
NEW YORK
Book Spread
-1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 points (New York)
PhilliesPHI (+1.5) 0 MetsNYM (-1.5)
New York Mets (-1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Phillies Cover

30.9%

Mets Cover

69.1%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around NYM -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYM)

PHI By 1-2 runs

13.6%

PHI By 3-4 runs

7.8%

NYM By 1-2 runs

19.6%

NYM By 3-4 runs

18.4%

AI Model Projected Score
3.5
PHILADELPHIA
Book Implied: 3.50
5.5
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 5
Simulated Score
5
PHILADELPHIA
Book Implied: 3.50
6
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 5
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Mets Win
71% Win Prob
A
Sim Mets Win
59% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Mets (-1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Sim Phillies (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: +1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o8.5 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
C
Sim o8.5 Win
Proj Total: 11.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 20, 2026 PHI @ NYM 7 - 2
Sep 19, 2026 PHI @ NYM 3 - 10
Sep 18, 2026 PHI @ NYM 3 - 6
Sep 17, 2026 PHI @ NYM 3 - 0
Jul 19, 2026 NYM @ PHI 6 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Philadelphia PHI
vs
New York NYM
2
Games Played
▲ 162
3.50
Runs / Game
▲ 4.31
.247 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.239
.286
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .310
.438 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.395
.724 ▲
OPS
.705
3
Home Runs
▲ 204
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season) +6700.0% more
New York: 204.0 vs Philadelphia: 3.0
Strikeouts (L5) +26.5% more
New York: 8.5 vs Philadelphia: 6.7
Runs per Game (Season) +23.1% more
New York: 4.3 vs Philadelphia: 3.5
Errors (L5) +22.0% more
New York: 0.5 vs Philadelphia: 0.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
PHI Score 3.5 3
NYM Score 5.5 6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.5 / 0.3 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 6.9 / 7.5 13.0 / 6.0
Home Runs 0.7 / 0.5 1.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 8.5 / 6.7 8.0 / 5.0
Total Bases 9.6 / 10.7 18.0 / 14.0
Walks 3.8 / 6.0 2.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +114 / -137 → +108 / -131 ↓
42%TICKETS58%
82%MONEY18%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5 → +1.5 / -1.5
59%TICKETS41%
63%MONEY37%
Total (O/U)
Open: 8 → 8.5 ↑
57%TICKETS43%
63%MONEY37%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PHI Advantage
89-76-0 (53.9%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
NYM
74-88-0 (45.7%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PHI
(41.2%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
NYM Advantage
(46.3%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
PHI
78-77-10
O: 50.3% / U: 49.7% Total +/-: +0.4
NYM
77-73-12
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYM
PHI
NYM
PHI
ML
50% 79-80
59% 97-67
48% 76-83
49% 80-84
ATS
58% 93-66
65% 107-57
49% 78-81
51% 83-81
TTL
55% 80-66-13
57% 88-67-9
51% 74-72-13
51% 78-76-9
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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