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KANSAS CITY

ROYALSKC

67-86  |  Road

2
FINAL
Thu, Sep 17 • 7:15 PM ET
Daikin Park
View Odds Details →

HOUSTON

ASTROSHOU

77-76  |  Home

6
Probable Pitchers
Seth Lugo
STARTING PITCHER

Seth Lugo

#67 | Starting Pitcher
@
Miguel Ullola
STARTING PITCHER

Miguel Ullola

#66 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Seth Lugo 7-8 4.99 1.45 164.0 126
Miguel Ullola 0-0 3.38 0.75 8.0 10
7-8 W-L 0-0
4.99 ERA Ldr 3.38
1.45 WHIP Ldr 0.75
164.0 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 8.0
126 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 10
AI Model Win Probability
ROYALS
29%
📊
ASTROS
71%
▲ Edge: +10.40% (HOU)
ROYALS 44% Book Odds: +129
ASTROS 61% Book Odds: -156
Book Implied: 43.70% / 60.90%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
9.0
Over / Under Line
Over 9.0 49%
Under 9.0 51%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
HOUSTON
Book Spread
-1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 points (Houston)
RoyalsKC (+1.5) 0 AstrosHOU (-1.5)
Houston Astros (-1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Royals Cover

30.9%

Astros Cover

69.1%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around HOU -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HOU)

KC By 1-2 runs

13.6%

KC By 3-4 runs

7.8%

HOU By 1-2 runs

19.6%

HOU By 3-4 runs

18.4%

AI Model Projected Score
3.5
KANSAS CITY
Book Implied: 3.80
5.5
HOUSTON
Book Implied: 5.20
Simulated Score
3
KANSAS CITY
Book Implied: 3.80
5
HOUSTON
Book Implied: 5.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Astros Win
71% Win Prob
A
Sim Astros Win
69% Win Prob
A
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Astros (-1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
B
Sim Astros (-1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u9.0 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Sim u9.0 Win
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 17, 2026 KC @ HOU 2 - 6
Sep 16, 2026 KC @ HOU 5 - 2
Sep 15, 2026 KC @ HOU 2 - 4
Jun 14, 2026 HOU @ KC 0 - 4
Jun 13, 2026 HOU @ KC 8 - 7
Season Statistics Comparison
Kansas City KC
vs
Houston HOU
162 ▲
Games Played
2
4.26 ▲
Runs / Game
3.00
.247 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.169
.316 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.229
.402 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.354
.718 ▲
OPS
.582
170 ▲
Home Runs
4
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +47.9% more
Houston: 1.7 vs Kansas City: 1.2
Strikeouts (L5) +25.7% more
Houston: 8.6 vs Kansas City: 6.8
Errors (L5) +21.0% more
Houston: 0.6 vs Kansas City: 0.3
Total Bases (L5) +17.3% more
Houston: 13.0 vs Kansas City: 11.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
KC Score 3.5 2
HOU Score 5.5 6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.6 / 0.3 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 6.4 / 6.4 11.0 / 3.0
Home Runs 1.7 / 1.2 5.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 8.6 / 6.8 7.0 / 6.0
Total Bases 13.0 / 11.0 28.0 / 4.0
Walks 3.1 / 4.4 2.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +120 / -145 → +129 / -156 ↑
19%TICKETS81%
26%MONEY74%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5 → +1.5 / -1.5
25%TICKETS75%
24%MONEY76%
Total (O/U)
Open: 9 → 9
89%TICKETS11%
91%MONEY9%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
KC
69-93-0 (42.6%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
HOU Advantage
81-83-0 (49.4%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
KC
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
HOU Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
KC
73-85-4
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: +0.6
HOU
81-74-9
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
HOU
KC
HOU
KC
ML
50% 81-82
55% 89-72
47% 77-87
56% 90-70
ATS
56% 91-72
57% 91-70
55% 90-74
58% 93-67
TTL
45% 70-84-9
58% 90-64-7
45% 69-86-9
54% 83-70-7
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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