PHILADELPHIA
PHILLIESPHI
85-68 | Road
3
NEW YORK
METSNYM
69-84 | Home
0
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Aaron Nola
#27 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Nolan McLean
#26 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nola | 6-10 | 4.69 | 1.37 | 161.1 | 165 |
| Nolan McLean | 11-9 | 3.24 | 1.18 | 166.2 | 184 |
6-10
W-L
11-9
4.69
ERA
Ldr 3.24
1.37
WHIP
Ldr 1.18
161.1
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 166.2
165
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 184
AI Model Win Probability
PHILLIES
32%
METS
68%
▲ Edge: +10.90% (NYM)
PHILLIES
48%
Book Odds: +109
METS
57%
Book Odds: -132
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
8.0
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +1.0 (Over)
Over 8.0
61%
Under 8.0
39%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.4
PHILADELPHIA
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Philadelphia)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around PHI +1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PHI)
PHI By 1-2 runs
15.3%
PHI By 3-4 runs
9.5%
NYM By 1-2 runs
19.7%
NYM By 3-4 runs
17.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Philadelphia
3.8
PHILADELPHIA
Book Implied: 3.20
New York
5.2
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 4.80
Simulated Score
Philadelphia
5
PHILADELPHIA
Book Implied: 3.20
New York
6
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 4.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Mets
Loss
68% Win Prob
B
Sim
Mets
Loss
59% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Phillies (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +1.4
D
Sim
Phillies (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
o8.0
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
B
Sim
o8.0
Loss
Proj Total: 11.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 20, 2026
PHI @ NYM
7 - 2
Sep 19, 2026
PHI @ NYM
3 - 10
Sep 18, 2026
PHI @ NYM
3 - 6
Sep 17, 2026
PHI @ NYM
3 - 0
Jul 19, 2026
NYM @ PHI
6 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Philadelphia
PHI
vs
New York
NYM
2
Games Played
▲
162
3.50
Runs / Game
▲
4.31
.247
▲
Avg (AVG)
.239
.286
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.310
.438
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.395
.724
▲
OPS
.705
3
Home Runs
▲
204
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+6700.0% more
New York: 204.0
vs
Philadelphia: 3.0
Home Runs (L5)
+29.0% more
New York: 1.0
vs
Philadelphia: 0.7
Strikeouts (L5)
+23.4% more
New York: 8.7
vs
Philadelphia: 7.0
Runs per Game (Season)
+23.1% more
New York: 4.3
vs
Philadelphia: 3.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PHI Score
3.8
3
NYM Score
5.2
0
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.2 / 0.4
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.4 / 7.2
4.0 / 8.0
Home Runs
1.0 / 0.7
0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
8.7 / 7.0
8.0 / 6.0
Total Bases
12.4 / 11.5
4.0 / 9.0
Walks
3.3 / 6.5
5.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +119 / -132
→
+109 / -132
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 8
→
8
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PHI
Advantage
89-76-0
(53.9%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
NYM
74-88-0
(45.7%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PHI
(41.2%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
NYM
Advantage
(46.3%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
PHI
78-77-10
O: 50.3% / U: 49.7%
Total +/-: +0.4
NYM
77-73-12
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYM
PHI
NYM
PHI
ML
50%
79-80
59%
97-67
48%
76-83
49%
80-84
ATS
58%
93-66
65%
107-57
49%
78-81
51%
83-81
TTL
55%
80-66-13
57%
88-67-9
51%
74-72-13
51%
78-76-9
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