Home / NFL Projections NFL / Patriots @ Jaguars NE @ JAX

NEW ENGLAND

PATRIOTSNE

1-2  |  Road

6
FINAL
Sun, Sep 27 • 1:00 PM ET
EverBank Stadium
View Odds Details →

JACKSONVILLE

JAGUARSJAX

2-1  |  Home

35
Key Game
Mitch Wishnowsky
KEY GAME

Mitch Wishnowsky

#19 | Punter
@
Logan Cooke
KEY GAME

Logan Cooke

#9 | Punter
Player
Mitch Wishnowsky None-None
Logan Cooke None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
PATRIOTS
48%
📊
JAGUARS
52%
▲ Edge: +5.90% (NE)
PATRIOTS 42% Book Odds: +136
JAGUARS 62% Book Odds: -162
Book Implied: 42.40% / 61.80%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
44.0
Projected
Book Total
46.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +2.5 (Under)
Over 46.5 42%
Under 46.5 58%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+0.4
NEW ENGLAND
Book Spread
+3
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.6 points (New England)
PatriotsNE (+3) 0 JaguarsJAX (-3)
New England Patriots (+3) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Patriots Cover

51.1%

Jaguars Cover

48.9%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around NE +0.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NE)

NE By 1-6 points

16.3%

NE By 7-13 points

15.1%

JAX By 1-6 points

16.6%

JAX By 7-13 points

15.7%

AI Model Projected Score
21.8
NEW ENGLAND
Book Implied: 21.80
22.2
JACKSONVILLE
Book Implied: 24.80
Simulated Score
22
NEW ENGLAND
Book Implied: 21.80
24
JACKSONVILLE
Book Implied: 24.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Jaguars Win
52% Win Prob
D
Sim Jaguars Win
57% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Patriots (+3) Loss
Proj Spread: +0.4
C
Sim Patriots (+3) Loss
Proj Spread: +2.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI u46.5 Win
Proj Total: 44.0
C
Sim u46.5 Win
Proj Total: 46.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 27, 2026 NE @ JAX 6 - 35
Oct 20, 2024 NE @ JAX 16 - 32
Jan 2, 2022 JAX @ NE 10 - 50
Sep 16, 2018 NE @ JAX 20 - 31
Jan 21, 2018 JAX @ NE 20 - 24
Key Model Drivers
First Downs (L5) +16.6% more
Jacksonville: 20.5 vs New England: 17.6
Net Passing Yards (L5) +9.0% more
Jacksonville: 208.8 vs New England: 191.6
Turnovers (L5) +63.2% more
New England: 1.9 vs Jacksonville: 0.7
Rushing Yards (L5) +21.4% more
New England: 133.4 vs Jacksonville: 104.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NE Score 21.8 6
JAX Score 22.2 35
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 20.5 / 17.6 23.0 / 17.0
Net Passing Yards 208.8 / 191.6 178.0 / 234.0
Rushing Yards 104.9 / 133.4 137.0 / 83.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.67 / 0.33
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.53 / 0.47
Total Yards 313.7 / 325.0 315.0 / 317.0
Turnovers 0.7 / 1.9 1.0 / 3.0
Yards Per Play 5.4 / 5.6 5.2 / 5.3
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -102 / -118 → +136 / -162 ↑
37%TICKETS63%
24%MONEY76%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5 → +3 / -3 ↑
59%TICKETS41%
63%MONEY37%
Total (O/U)
Open: 45.5 → 46.5 ↑
44%TICKETS56%
47%MONEY53%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NE
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 3.2 ATS +/-: +4.2
JAX Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 10.6 ATS +/-: +7.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NE Advantage
3-1-1 (75.0%)
Margin: 3.2 ATS +/-: +4.2
JAX
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 10.6 ATS +/-: +7.8
⚖️ Over/Under
NE
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -5.3
JAX
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: -6.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
JAX
NE
JAX
NE
ML
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
ATS
40% 2-3
50% 2-2-1
40% 2-3
50% 2-2-1
TTL
80% 4-1
20% 1-4
60% 3-2
40% 2-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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