Home / NFL Projections NFL / Seahawks @ Commanders SEA @ WSH

SEATTLE

SEAHAWKSSEA

2-1  |  Road

31
FINAL
Sun, Sep 27 • 1:00 PM ET
Northwest Stadium
View Odds Details →

WASHINGTON

COMMANDERSWSH

1-2  |  Home

33
Key Game
Michael Dickson
KEY GAME

Michael Dickson

#4 | Punter
@
Tress Way
KEY GAME

Tress Way

#10 | Punter
Player
Michael Dickson None-None
Tress Way None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
SEAHAWKS
65%
📊
COMMANDERS
35%
▲ Edge: +10.70% (WSH)
SEAHAWKS 80% Book Odds: -410
COMMANDERS 24% Book Odds: +320
Book Implied: 80.40% / 23.80%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
46.5
Projected
Book Total
40.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +6.0 (Over)
Over 40.5 68%
Under 40.5 32%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-11.5
SEATTLE
Book Spread
-8.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Seattle)
SeahawksSEA (-8.5) 0 CommandersWSH (+8.5)
Seattle Seahawks (-8.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Seahawks Cover

79.4%

Commanders Cover

20.6%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around SEA -11.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SEA)

SEA By 1-6 points

14.4%

SEA By 7-13 points

19.6%

WSH By 1-6 points

9.6%

WSH By 7-13 points

6.2%

AI Model Projected Score
29
SEATTLE
Book Implied: 24.50
17.5
WASHINGTON
Book Implied: 16
Simulated Score
25
SEATTLE
Book Implied: 24.50
22
WASHINGTON
Book Implied: 16
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Seahawks Loss
65% Win Prob
B
Sim Seahawks Loss
62% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI Seahawks (-8.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -11.5
B
Sim Commanders (+8.5) Win
Proj Spread: +3.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI o40.5 Win
Proj Total: 46.5
A
Sim o40.5 Win
Proj Total: 47.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 27, 2026 SEA @ WSH 31 - 33
Nov 2, 2025 SEA @ WSH 38 - 14
Nov 12, 2023 WSH @ SEA 26 - 29
Nov 29, 2021 SEA @ WSH 15 - 17
Dec 20, 2020 SEA @ WSH 20 - 15
Key Model Drivers
Net Passing Yards (L5) +21.2% more
Seattle: 215.3 vs Washington: 169.7
Yards Per Play (L5) +14.8% more
Seattle: 5.7 vs Washington: 4.9
Total Yards (L5) +8.9% more
Seattle: 335.8 vs Washington: 306.0
Rushing Yards (L5) +13.2% more
Washington: 136.3 vs Seattle: 120.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SEA Score 29.0 31
WSH Score 17.5 33
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 18.7 / 18.3 17.0 / 28.0
Net Passing Yards 169.7 / 215.3 176.0 / 393.0
Rushing Yards 136.3 / 120.5 82.0 / 44.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.23 / 0.33
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.52 / 0.48
Total Yards 306.0 / 335.8 258.0 / 437.0
Turnovers 1.0 / 1.0 0.0 / 3.0
Yards Per Play 4.9 / 5.7 4.0 / 6.8
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -185 / +154 → -410 / +320 ↓
98%TICKETS2%
90%MONEY10%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -3.5 / +3.5 → -8.5 / +8.5 ↓
88%TICKETS12%
85%MONEY15%
Total (O/U)
Open: 46.5 → 40.5 ↓
61%TICKETS39%
56%MONEY44%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SEA Advantage
4-4-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 3.3 ATS +/-: -1.1
WSH
2-4-1 (33.3%)
Margin: -3.3 ATS +/-: -0.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SEA
2-4-2 (33.3%)
Margin: 3.3 ATS +/-: -1.1
WSH Advantage
4-3-0 (57.1%)
Margin: -3.3 ATS +/-: -0.1
⚖️ Over/Under
SEA
4-4-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -0.4
WSH
4-3-0
O: 57.1% / U: 42.9% Total +/-: +3.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WSH
SEA
WSH
SEA
ML
57% 4-3
50% 4-4
33% 2-4-1
50% 4-4
ATS
29% 2-5
50% 3-3-2
71% 5-2
50% 3-3-2
TTL
57% 4-3
12% 1-7
71% 5-2
62% 5-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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